SharpEdge: Our Colts +3 Now Beats DraftKings by a Point and a Half
Final card, Sunday morning. The biggest move of the week was the Chiefs sliding two full points. The move that matters most to us is in Indianapolis, where the market walked toward a play we already hold. Every number below is DraftKings, the house book, comparing where the card opened Wednesday morning with where it sits now.
Line Moves
The spread is the head start the underdog gets: Seahawks -3 means Seattle has to win by more than 3 for that bet to cash. The total is the over/under on combined points from both teams.
| Game | Opened (DraftKings) | Now | Move | Total opened | Total now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL @ GB (Thu, final) | GB -5.5 | Final, off board | n/a | 43.5 | Final |
| LAC @ BUF | BUF -7 | BUF -7 | none | 50.5 | 50.5 |
| CAR @ CLE | CAR -2.5 | CAR -1.5 | 1 toward CLE | 42.5 | 41.5 |
| NYJ @ DET | DET -6.5 | DET -6.5 | none | 47.5 | 48.5 |
| HOU @ IND | HOU -3 | HOU -1.5 | 1.5 toward IND | 42.5 | 42.5 |
| KC @ MIA | KC -11.5 | KC -9.5 | 2 toward MIA | 45.5 | 45.5 |
| TEN @ NYG | NYG -2.5 | NYG -2.5 | none | 39.5 | 37.5 |
| CIN @ PIT | CIN -3.5 | CIN -3.5 | none | 42.5 | 42.5 |
| SEA @ WAS | SEA -7 | SEA -8.5 | 1.5 toward SEA | 40.5 | 40.5 |
| NE @ JAX | JAX -3 | JAX -3 | none | 45.5 | 45.5 |
| ARI @ SF | SF -8.5 | SF -7.5 | 1 toward ARI | 47.5 | 48.5 |
| MIN @ TB | MIN -1.5 | MIN -1.5 | none | 42.5 | 42.5 |
| BAL @ DAL | BAL -3.5 | BAL -3.5 | none | 52.5 | 53.5 |
| LV @ NO | NO -3 | NO -3.5 | 0.5 toward NO | 44.5 | 43.5 |
| LA @ DEN | LAR -2.5 | LAR -1.5 | 1 toward DEN | 45.5 | 44.5 |
| PHI @ CHI (Mon) | PHI -4.5 | PHI -3.5 | 1 toward CHI | 41.5 | 42.5 |
Key numbers first, because that is where the money is: NFL games land on 3 and 7 far more than any other margin, so a half point on either side of those numbers is worth real money. Three moves crossed one. Houston went from -3 to -1.5, clean off the 3. Seattle went from -7 to -8.5, straight through the 7. New Orleans went from -3 to -3.5, which means Saints backers now lose on a field goal win that used to be a push. Kansas City sliding from -11.5 to -9.5 is the biggest move on the board but it happens in the dead zone between 7 and 14.
Now the scorecard that matters. Closing line value, CLV, is whether the line you bet was better than where the market closed. It is the best long-term sign a bettor knows what they are doing, because closing lines are the sharpest numbers there are. Our Colts +3 is now a Colts +1.5 game at DraftKings. We hold a number a point and a half better than the market, and we hold the 3. That is CLV going our way, and it counts even if the Colts lose.
Nothing moved against us. Patriots +3 still sits at +3. Bengals-Steelers under 42.5 has not budged. That is flat CLV, and flat is honest: we got no better and no worse than the market. The Thursday under in Green Bay is final and off the board; the pack does not carry its grade yet, so it shows up in the ledger next issue, win or lose.
The Card
| Play | We took | Now at DraftKings | CLV read | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE +3 (1:00 PM ET) | +3, -110 | +3 | Flat, still on the 3 | Play |
| CIN @ PIT Under (1:00 PM ET) | 42.5, -110 | 42.5 | Flat | Play |
| IND +3 (1:00 PM ET) | +3, -110 | +1.5 | Ahead 1.5, through the 3 | Lean |
| ATL @ GB Under (final) | 43.5, -110 | Final | Awaiting grade | Lean |
| NEW: DET -6.5 (1:00 PM ET) | -6.5 | -6.5 | New today | Lean |
Patriots +3. Our power rating, a number for how good a team is in points against an average team on a neutral field, has New England at 4.8 and Jacksonville at 3.6. The model makes it Jaguars -0.7. The Patriots defense has allowed 6.5 points a game and ranks 5th in EPA per play: Expected Points Added, how many points a play moved the team toward scoring compared with an average play from the same spot. Positive is good on offense, negative is good on defense. New England sits at -0.182. What makes me wrong: this offense ranks 25th in EPA and is giving the ball away 2.5 times a game.
Under 42.5 in Pittsburgh. Two top-three defenses by EPA: Cincinnati 2nd at -0.222, Pittsburgh 3rd at -0.202. The Steelers offense ranks 31st and scores 11.5 a game, and the injury report has Rico Dowdle out with Jaylen Warren and Michael Pittman questionable. Model total is 38.3. What makes me wrong: a defensive score or two short fields.
Colts +3. Already a winner on the number. Houston lists Nico Collins, Jadeveon Clowney and guard Ed Ingram out. The honest risk: Indianapolis owns the worst defense in the league by EPA, 32nd at 0.269, and gives up 35.5 a game.
New: Lions -6.5. Model says Detroit -8.7, a 2.2-point disagreement. In the backtest, 2-to-3-point disagreements hit 54.7% against the spread; that is the only band that cleared break-even. The number is the reason: -6.5 wins on a 7-point game, and a 7-point game is the most common margin you get in this range. Detroit also has the rest edge, days since each team's last game, 10 days to the Jets' 7. What makes me wrong: this Jets defense ranks 6th in EPA, allows 13.0 points a game, and has given up 20-yard plays on 1.0% of snaps. The model trusts last season more than two games of this. That is regression, pulling an extreme number back toward average because small samples lie. It can be wrong. If it moves to -7, pass.
Sizing. Units are a fixed bet size so results can be compared; one unit is one unit whether that is $10 or $100. Play tier is one unit. Lean tier is half a unit. We are 0-5 on graded plays, and the answer to that is not bigger bets. It is the same bets at the same size on better numbers.
Considered and passed. Giants -2.5 lays under the 3 and the model likes it by 3.1, but 3-to-4.5-point gaps hit 52.1% in the backtest, below break-even. Cowboys +3.5 gets through the 3 with a 3.0-point model gap, same problem. Chiefs-Dolphins and Steelers +3.5 show gaps of 6.4 and 7.2; the backtest says 4.5-plus disagreements hit 47.7%. Big disagreements are usually the model being wrong.
Line Shop
Line shopping is checking the same bet at several sportsbooks and taking the best number. Getting +3.5 instead of +3 is free equity, and it costs nothing but a minute. This pack carries DraftKings only, no other books. So every price on this card is a DraftKings price. If you have another app, check the Patriots at +3.5 and the Lions at -6 before kickoff. Either one beats what we list here. Do not take Patriots +2.5 or Lions -7 anywhere.
The Lean
Chiefs at Dolphins, 1:00 PM ET. The biggest mover, 11.5 down to 9.5. Kansas City ranks 3rd in net EPA and runs 71.0 plays a game. Miami's pass defense is getting shredded at 0.456 EPA per dropback, has a 0.0% sack rate, and its offense is allowing sacks on 15.3% of dropbacks. The injury report has Miami back Jaylen Wright doubtful and receiver Caleb Douglas out; Chiefs tackle Josh Simmons is out. The model makes it Chiefs by 3.1, so the market came toward the model. I do not trust the rest of that gap. Everything in the profile says Kansas City is the better team by a lot. Pass at 9.5. If you already have Miami +11.5 from Wednesday, you beat the market by two, and that is the only good Dolphins ticket out there.
Seahawks at Commanders, 1:00 PM ET. Seattle went from -7 to -8.5, through the 7. The official injury report lists Jayden Daniels out with an elbow. The pack's projected-starter field still shows him, so trust the injury report and do not trust the projection. Washington is also without guard Sam Cosmi, linebacker Frankie Luvu, safety Nick Cross and tight end Chig Okonkwo. Seattle's defense has allowed 8.5 points a game, ranks 4th in EPA and has not given up a 20-yard play. It is missing safeties Julian Love and Ty Okada. The model leans Washington by 2.4, but that model does not know who is playing quarterback. This is the cleanest example on the board of a number the market has right and the model has wrong. Pass on Washington, and pass on laying 8.5.
The Ledger
| Published | Graded | Record | Hit rate | Units | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 5 | 0-5-0 | 0.0% | -5.0 | 0.4 |
Hit rate is the percentage of bets that won; at standard -110 odds you need 52.4% just to break even. We are at zero on five graded plays. The one number here that says the process is working is the average CLV of 0.4: on average we have beaten the closing number. Five plays is a tiny sample either way. Colts +3 adds to that CLV column today. The pending list in the pack also includes one blank placeholder row; it is not a play and it is not on this card.
Ledger Entries
| Game | Market | Side | Line | Odds | Book | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ @ DET | spread | DET | -6.5 | -110 | DraftKings | Lean |
The pack does not show DraftKings' spread price on this game, so we record the standard -110 the ledger uses. It gets corrected if the ticket shows different.
Plain English
- Spread: The head start the underdog gets. Seahawks -3 means Seattle has to win by more than 3 for that bet to cash.
- Total: The over/under on combined points from both teams.
- Key numbers: NFL games land on 3 and 7 far more than any other margin, so a half point on either side of those numbers is worth real money.
- Closing line value: CLV: whether the line you bet was better than where the market closed. The best long-term sign a bettor knows what they are doing, because closing lines are the sharpest numbers there are.
- Power rating: A number for how good a team is, in points, against an average team on a neutral field. Subtract two ratings, add home field, and you have a model spread.
- EPA per play: Expected Points Added: how many points a play moved the team toward scoring compared with an average play from the same spot. Positive is good on offense, negative is good on defense.
- Rest edge: Days since each team's last game. Teams off a bye or a Thursday game have a real, measurable rest advantage.
- Regression: Pulling an extreme number back toward average because small samples lie. A 6-0 team is good; it is not undefeated-good.
- Units: A fixed bet size so results can be compared. One unit is one unit whether that is $10 or $100.
- Line shopping: Checking the same bet at several sportsbooks and taking the best number. Getting +3.5 instead of +3 is free equity, and it costs nothing but a minute.
- Hit rate: The percentage of bets that won. At standard -110 odds you need 52.4% just to break even.
Sources
Lines and totals: DraftKings via ESPN, opening numbers from DraftKings on Wednesday morning. Team efficiency profiles and power ratings: nflverse play-by-play (2026 weeks 1-2 blended with last season, regressed). Injuries: official NFL injury reports. Backtest and ledger: SharpEdge records.
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