The Flex: The Rams Are Projected for 32, and Puka Nacua Eats First
The Snap
Puka Nacua is seeing 15.0 targets a game, which is a 33% target share. Target share is the percentage of the team's pass attempts thrown at this player. Volume is the most stable thing in fantasy, and this is volume. He also has a 41% air yards share. Air yards share is the share of the team's intended throwing distance that went to this player. It shows who gets the deep, high-value looks. Put the two together and he has a 0.79 WOPR. WOPR means Weighted Opportunity Rating: target share and air yards share blended into one number. Above 0.6 is elite usage, 0.4 to 0.6 is a weekly starter's diet. One caveat: that comes from three games, not five.
DraftKings, via ESPN, gives Los Angeles a 32.0 implied team total against Arizona, the highest on the slate. An implied team total is how many points the betting market expects a team to score, worked out from the spread and the total. Bigger number, more touchdowns to go around. Arizona's pass defense ranks 31st in EPA per play, while its run defense ranks 7th. EPA per play means Expected Points Added: how many points a play moved the team toward scoring compared with an average play from the same spot. Positive is good on offense, negative is good on defense.
Start Nacua, Davante Adams (0.56 WOPR) and Matthew Stafford, who throws 44.2 times a game. What would make me wrong: a blowout that turns the second half into handoffs. Kickoff is Sunday at 4:05 PM ET.
The Setup
The spread is the head start the underdog gets. Seahawks -3 means Seattle has to win by more than 3 for that bet to cash. The total is the over/under on combined points from both teams.
| Game | Kickoff (ET) | DraftKings line | Total | Implied totals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF @ LV | Sun 4:25 PM | BUF -5.5 | 53.5 | BUF 29.5, LV 24.0 |
| DAL @ GB | Sun 8:20 PM | GB -1.5 | 53.5 | GB 27.5, DAL 26.0 |
| CHI @ ATL | Sun 1:00 PM | CHI -1.5 | 51.5 | CHI 26.5, ATL 25.0 |
| ARI @ LA | Sun 4:05 PM | LAR -12.5 | 51.5 | LA 32.0, ARI 19.5 |
| WAS @ SF | Mon 8:15 PM | SF -7.5 | 50.5 | SF 29.0, WAS 21.5 |
| NO @ NYG | Sun 1:00 PM | NO -1.5 | 45.5 | NO 23.5, NYG 22.0 |
The biggest implied totals belong to the Rams (32.0), Bills (29.5) and 49ers (29.0). Buffalo at Las Vegas is the game to stack. Buffalo gives up 45.1 PPR points a game to receivers, the most in the league, plus 29.1 to backs (2nd softest) and 23.3 to quarterbacks (3rd). PPR points allowed are fantasy points (one point per catch) a defense has given up to a position each game. High number, soft matchup. Fire up Kirk Cousins, Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers. On Sunday night, Green Bay hosts a Dallas defense that ranks last in pass defense EPA.
Games to fade: Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay has the lowest total on the slate at 39.5. Seattle at Denver is 40.5 and kicks off tonight, Thursday, at 8:15 PM ET, so set those lineups now. The Chargers have the lowest implied total, 17.0 at Kansas City. Houston at Jacksonville kicks off Sunday at 9:30 AM ET.
On bye: Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami and Minnesota. That means no Gibbs, St. Brown, Chase or Jefferson this week.
Usage Report
No one in the pack is flagged as being on a new team, so every baseline here is from 2026, weeks 1-5.
Michael Wilson, ARI: He has a 90% snap share. Snap share is the percentage of the offense's plays this player was on the field for. You cannot score from the bench. Over the last three weeks he averaged 3.0 red zone touches a game. Red zone touches are carries and targets inside the opponent's 20. This is where the touchdowns live. That is a WR1's workload.
Carnell Tate, TEN: A 0.65 WOPR and a 46% air yards share, but only 9.7 PPR points a game. The usage is elite and the offense is bad. Bet on that gap closing.
Isaiah Likely, NYG: A 27% target share at tight end. Only Bowers and Trey McBride match it in this pack.
Matthew Golden, GB: Christian Watson outscores him, 21.9 PPR a game to 15.3, but Golden has the bigger role: a 0.61 WOPR to Watson's 0.53.
Derrick Henry, BAL: A 73% carry share and 14 goal line carries, the most in the pack. Carry share is the percentage of the team's running back carries this player got. Goal line carries are carries from inside the 5. The most valuable touch in fantasy. Cleveland ranks 28th against the run by EPA.
D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai, CHI: Swift gets the goal line work, 10 carries to Monangai's 6, but Monangai averaged 20.0 carries a game over the last three weeks. Then he missed practice with a thumb injury. If Monangai sits, Swift is an RB2.
| Player | Snap share | Target share | WOPR | Carry share | Red zone touches/g | Goal line carries |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Wilson, ARI | 90% | 24% | 0.62 | n/a | 1.8 | n/a |
| Carnell Tate, TEN | 82% | 22% | 0.65 | n/a | 0.2 | n/a |
| Isaiah Likely, NYG | 70% | 27% | 0.56 | n/a | 1.6 | n/a |
| Matthew Golden, GB | 83% | 23% | 0.61 | n/a | 1.8 | n/a |
| Derrick Henry, BAL | 58% | 6% | 0.07 | 73% | 6.0 | 14 |
| D'Andre Swift, CHI | 57% | 9% | 0.12 | 44% | 4.4 | 10 |
| Kyle Monangai, CHI | 40% | 4% | 0.06 | 39% | 3.8 | 6 |
Start-Sit
QB. Start Josh Allen (LV allows 21.9 QB PPR, 5th softest), Brock Purdy (WAS allows 24.1, 2nd) and Kirk Cousins as a streamer (BUF allows 23.3, 3rd). Sit Justin Herbert (KC allows 12.9, 29th) and Bo Nix (SEA allows 12.6, 30th).
RB. Start Kenneth Walker III (LAC allows 22.2 RB PPR, 13th), Jeanty (BUF allows 29.1, 2nd), Javonte Williams (GB allows 28.4, 4th; 13 goal line carries) and Cam Skattebo (NO allows 32.3, the most of any defense). Sit David Montgomery (JAX allows 16.6, 30th; missed practice) and Saquon Barkley. CAR allows 27.8 (5th), but Barkley is scoring 5.8 PPR a game and missed practice.
WR. Start Nacua and Adams (LA implied 32.0), Tetairoa McMillan (PHI allows 38.6 WR PPR, 5th softest), Parker Washington (HOU allows 40.8, 2nd), Mike Evans (WAS allows 39.6, 4th) and both Golden and Watson (DAL last in pass defense EPA). Sit Courtland Sutton (SEA allows 25.1, 29th) and Ladd McConkey (KC allows 21.0, the fewest of any defense).
TE. Start Bowers (LV implied 24.0), George Kittle (WAS allows 22.2 TE PPR, 3rd softest) and Likely (NO allows 16.7, 7th). Start McBride too: LA allows just 6.0, the fewest of any defense, but 11.2 targets a game beats any matchup. Sit Kyle Pitts (CHI allows 7.7, 30th) and Jake Ferguson (GB allows 9.6, 25th).
Flex. Start Tre Tucker (BUF allows 45.1 WR PPR, the most of any defense) and Rome Odunze (ATL allows 37.7, 6th). Sit DK Metcalf (TB allows 29.5, 21st).
Coin flips
- Jayden Daniels or Jordan Love? Love has the better matchup: DAL allows 21.6 QB PPR (6th), while SF allows 13.1 (27th). Tiebreaker: Daniels runs for 68.0 yards a game. Take Daniels.
- Swift or Bucky Irving? Irving has the better matchup: PIT allows 22.9 RB PPR (11th), while ATL allows 20.0 (20th). Tiebreaker: Chicago's 26.5 implied total against Tampa's 18.5. Take Swift.
- Tate or Michael Wilson? Their usage is about even. Tiebreaker: IND ranks 23rd in pass defense EPA and LA ranks 4th. Take Tate.
Waiver Wire
ADP (average draft position) is only a rough proxy for who is rostered. Most of these names have no August ADP, which usually means they're available, but check your own wire. FAAB bids are a percentage of your budget.
1. Emanuel Wilson, SEA, RB1. 15%. Charbonnet is Out. Wilson has a 54% carry share and 7 goal line carries, and Denver ranks 30th against the run by EPA. He plays tonight, so if your waivers already ran, add him as a free agent before 8:15 PM ET.
2. Juwan Johnson, NO, TE1. 10%. He's scoring 13.2 PPR a game, with an 18% target share over the last three weeks, and New Orleans has a 23.5 implied total. Chris Olave missed practice.
3. Devaughn Vele, NO, WR2. 8%. A 92% snap share and 7.4 targets a game. He's next up if Olave sits.
4. Keenan Allen, IND, WR2. 6%. A 21% target share over the last three weeks, and Tennessee ranks 29th in pass defense EPA. He missed practice for rest, not an injury.
5. Brenton Strange, JAX, TE1. 5%. A last-round pick (ADP 165.1) who is often available in 12-team leagues. He has a 21% target share over the last three weeks.
6. Keon Coleman, BUF, WR3. 3%. He has averaged 12.0 PPR over the last three weeks, and Buffalo's 29.5 implied total is second on the slate.
Injury Report
Out
- Zach Charbonnet (SEA RB, knee): Emanuel Wilson stays RB1, with George Holani (ribs, full practice) behind him.
Doubtful and Questionable
- None yet. Everyone else is "not on final report yet." Check the final report before your lineups lock.
Did not practice
- Lamar Jackson (BAL QB, ankle): Tyler Huntley is next.
- Jeremiyah Love (ARI RB, ankle): Tyler Allgeier is next.
- Saquon Barkley (PHI RB, hamstring): Will Shipley (foot) also missed practice, so Dameon Pierce is next.
- Breece Hall (NYJ RB, quad): Braelon Allen is next.
- David Montgomery (HOU RB, groin): Woody Marks is next.
- Quinshon Judkins (CLE RB, ankle): Jaleel McLaughlin is next.
- Kyle Monangai (CHI RB, thumb): More work for D'Andre Swift.
- Rashee Rice (KC WR, hamstring): Xavier Worthy and Jalen Royals are next.
- Chris Olave (NO WR, illness): Devaughn Vele is next.
- DeVonta Smith (PHI WR, hamstring): Dontayvion Wicks (hamstring, limited) and Makai Lemon are next.
- Baker Mayfield (TB QB, thumb): Jalon Daniels is next.
Limited: Brock Bowers (knee), Alvin Kamara (back; Kendre Miller is behind him), Ladd McConkey (foot).
Rest days, not injuries: Keenan Allen, Tony Pollard, Chris Godwin Jr., Jonathan Taylor, Josh Downs, Nico Collins.
Buy Low, Sell High
- Buy Amon-Ra St. Brown. He's on bye and has scored 13.4 PPR a game over the last three weeks, but he still has a 25% target share and 3.3 red zone touches a game. His manager is frustrated, so make an offer.
- Buy Ashton Jeanty. He has scored 13.9 PPR over the last three weeks, but he has a 68% carry share and faces Buffalo (29.1 RB PPR allowed, 2nd softest) this week.
- Sell Jaylen Warren. He has scored 24.3 PPR over the last three weeks but has zero goal line carries all year, and Tampa Bay ranks 4th against the run by EPA. Start him this week, then shop him.
Plain English
- Target share: The percentage of the team's pass attempts thrown at this player. Volume is the most stable thing in fantasy, and this is volume.
- Air yards share: The share of the team's intended throwing distance that went to this player. It shows who gets the deep, high-value looks.
- WOPR: Weighted Opportunity Rating: target share and air yards share blended into one number. Above 0.6 is elite usage, 0.4 to 0.6 is a weekly starter's diet.
- Implied team total: How many points the betting market expects a team to score, worked out from the spread and the total. Bigger number, more touchdowns to go around.
- EPA per play: Expected Points Added: how many points a play moved the team toward scoring compared with an average play from the same spot. Positive is good on offense, negative is good on defense.
- Spread: The head start the underdog gets. Seahawks -3 means Seattle has to win by more than 3 for that bet to cash.
- Total: The over/under on combined points from both teams.
- PPR points allowed: Fantasy points (one point per catch) a defense has given up to a position each game. High number, soft matchup.
- Snap share: The percentage of the offense's plays this player was on the field for. You cannot score from the bench.
- Red zone touches: Carries and targets inside the opponent's 20. This is where the touchdowns live.
- Carry share: The percentage of the team's running back carries this player got.
- Goal line carries: Carries from inside the 5. The most valuable touch in fantasy.
Sources
Usage and snap counts: nflverse play-by-play. Lines, totals and implied team totals: DraftKings via ESPN. Depth charts and injury reports: the league's official feeds via nflverse. ADP: August standard-scoring drafts.