Signal and Noise

New York, Thursday, August 13, 2026, 11:10 a.m. ET. The number that matters is 0.0%. Producer prices, what American businesses pay before goods reach you, barely moved in July from June, while they rose 4.7% from a year earlier, calculated from the Labor Department index released at 8:30 a.m. ET. Stocks like that first number because calmer wholesale prices give the Federal Reserve less reason to keep borrowing costs high. The second number says nobody should declare inflation dead and start ordering champagne. You care because interest rates touch your mortgage, your credit card, and what investors will pay for every future dollar of company profit.

Yesterday's Scoreboard

S&P 500: 7,748.50, up 0.3%. The broad basket of 500 large American companies gained 20.30 points, according to Yahoo Finance, as softer consumer inflation and strong artificial intelligence demand kept buyers at the table.
Nasdaq Composite: 26,588.49, up 0.5%. The technology-heavy index added 143.04 points, because tech profits look richer when investors expect lower rates.
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 53,770.27, down less than 0.1%. The 30-company old-guard index lost 21.58 points, basically a rounding error with a necktie.
Best mover on my tracked board: CoreWeave, up 19.3% to $107.73. Reuters tied the market's AI optimism to its results, and reports put its contracted future business, called backlog, at $104 billion.
Worst mover on my tracked board: Tapestry, down 4.2% to $153.74. Traders cut exposure before this morning's earnings, proof that the market will charge you admission before it shows you the movie.

The Signal

Producer prices cooled at the monthly level. The Labor Department's final-demand index slipped from 156.607 in June to 156.563 in July, about 0.0% after rounding, which reduces immediate pressure on the Fed even though the 4.7% yearly rise is still hot.
Technology is doing the heavy lifting. At 11:10 a.m. ET, QQQ, the fund that tracks 100 large Nasdaq companies, traded at $732.37, up 1.2%, while DIA, the fund that tracks the Dow, sat almost flat at $537.39, according to the Robinhood broker feed. That gap says investors want growth, not everything.
The rally has more than one engine. Small-company fund IWM traded at $303.83, up 0.4%, while SPY gained 0.6% to $777.18, according to Robinhood. Small firms joining the move makes the advance healthier than seven giant tech stocks dragging everybody uphill.

The Noise

Every fresh record-high headline. A record tells you where the market has been, not what the next buyer will pay, so framing it and hanging it over the bar does not create an edge.
The daily “AI bubble” shouting match. Some prices are ridiculous and some businesses are printing real revenue. Stuffing both into one slogan is analysis for people who lost their calculator.
One stock as proof of the whole economy. Birkenstock jumped 15.8% to $42.56, while Cellebrite fell 31.5% to $10.45 by 11:12 a.m. ET, according to Robinhood. Those moves tell you about those companies, not whether your rent gets cheaper.

On the Clock

8:30 a.m. ET, Producer Price Index: Already out. The index tracks wholesale prices, meaning what businesses pay before products reach store shelves. The flat monthly reading helped stocks, but the 4.7% annual climb keeps the inflation fight open.
Federal Reserve speakers: The Fed's public calendar lists no scheduled Board speaker today. No microphone does not mean no volatility, it only removes one obvious source of surprise.
Before the bell, Brookfield, JD.com, Tapestry and Birkenstock: These reports test commercial property, Chinese shopping, handbags and consumer spending. Four different cash registers beat one economist's guess.
After the bell, Applied Materials: Nasdaq lists the chip-equipment giant with Wall Street expecting $3.38 per share in profit. Its order outlook matters because chip factories spend before semiconductor sales arrive, like a kitchen buying ovens before dinner service.

Levels I Am Watching

Prices below come from the Robinhood broker feed at 11:10 to 11:12 a.m. ET.

SPY: $777.18. Yesterday's $772.49 close is the first floor where buyers need to defend the breakout. $780 is the nearby ceiling, a round number where sellers often crowd the door.
QQQ: $732.37. Yesterday's $723.70 close is the line that separates a real technology breakout from a morning sugar rush. $735 is the next simple ceiling.
BIRK: $42.56, up 15.8%. $40 is the first floor because falling back under a freshly reclaimed round number would show the earnings pop losing muscle. $43 is the immediate ceiling where today's fast buyers may start taking profit.

Term of the Day

Breadth means how many stocks join an index move. A rally with broad participation is a busy kitchen where every station works, while a rally carried by three giant stocks is one cook trying to serve the whole restaurant.

The Posture

Patient, not timid: the tape is strong, but after a fast morning run, disciplined traders make the market prove it can hold these floors before they press.

Stay sharp. The price tells the truth before the headline admits it. DBTech45