Signal and Noise

New York, September 10, 2026, 8:46 a.m. ET. The inflation report landed, and the number is hot enough to keep the morning ugly but not hot enough to count as a surprise. Wholesale prices rose 0.4% in August, exactly what economists expected, while the yearly increase hit 5.4%. That is the price pressure businesses feel before you feel it at the register. Add Brent crude at $105.37 a barrel, and the market has a simple problem: expensive fuel can keep inflation alive and interest rates high. Nasdaq futures were down 0.82% at 8:40 a.m. ET. The market heard the number and did not clap. Sources: CNBC at 8:31 a.m. ET, Yahoo Finance and Marketwall at 8:46 a.m. ET.

Yesterday’s Scoreboard

The broad market fund SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) closed at $762.40, down 0.47%. Big companies lost ground.
The technology-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) closed at $716.31, down 0.29%. Tech held up better as a few artificial intelligence winners carried it.
The Dow-tracking SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) closed at $524.07, down 0.75%. Oil and higher borrowing costs hit old-economy stocks harder.
Best mover: Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) jumped 14.40% to $51.15 after profit beat expectations and management raised its full-year earnings forecast. Plain meaning: shoppers may feel pinched, but this retailer squeezed more profit from each sale.
Worst mover: ServiceTitan (TTAN) sank 29.98% to $57.12 after earnings, even though revenue grew 21%, because investors hated the outlook and reset their expectations. Plain meaning: a good quarter cannot rescue a price built for perfection. Sources: Yahoo Finance at 8:46 a.m. ET, company earnings coverage dated September 9.

The Signal

Wholesale inflation is still running hot. August producer prices rose 0.4% for the month and 5.4% from a year ago, while the 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.885% this morning. That is what the government pays to borrow for ten years. Plain meaning: money stays expensive, so weak businesses lose oxygen first.
Oil is the second inflation report. Brent crude rose 4.11% to $105.37, while U.S. crude rose 4.23% to $100.11 at 8:46 a.m. ET. Oil feeds shipping, airfare, plastics, and groceries. Plain meaning: even an in-line inflation report cannot calm prices if the fuel bill keeps climbing.
The next test comes after dinner. Oracle (ORCL) and Adobe (ADBE) report after the closing bell, with analysts expecting profit of $1.39 and $4.86 per share, respectively. Oracle tests spending on cloud computing, meaning rented computer power. Adobe tests whether paid creative software can defend itself from cheaper AI tools. Plain meaning: tonight tests whether the AI boom produces cash, not just conference-room poetry. Source: Nasdaq earnings calendar at 8:40 a.m. ET.

The Noise

Anyone declaring inflation beaten or reborn from one report is selling theater. The monthly number matched forecasts, and tomorrow’s consumer inflation report matters more because it measures prices households actually pay.
Meta Platforms (META) rose 6.55% and Cloudflare (NET) rose 10.51% yesterday on artificial intelligence enthusiasm. Two rockets do not prove the whole launchpad is sound. Plain meaning: a spectacular day in two stocks does not erase falling indexes, rising oil, or higher rates.
The opening bell prediction game is useless this morning. SPY moved more than $6 from its overnight high to low before breakfast. Anyone claiming certainty here is reading tea leaves with a Bloomberg keyboard.

On the Clock

8:30 a.m. ET: Producer prices rose 0.4%, matching forecasts, and weekly unemployment claims were scheduled alongside them. Producer prices measure business-to-business charges, and this reading kept pressure on tech.
10:00 a.m. ET: Existing-home sales are expected at an annual rate of 3.98 million, down from 4.06 million. Weak sales say high mortgage rates still choke housing.
12:00 p.m. ET: U.S. crude inventories are expected to fall 1.4 million barrels. A bigger drop means tighter supply and could lift oil.
1:00 p.m. ET: The Treasury sells 30-year bonds. Strong demand can lower long rates, weak demand can raise them.
Before the bell: Macy’s (M) reports, with analysts expecting $0.37 per share. Watch whether shoppers traded down or stopped.
After the bell: Oracle and Adobe lead the earnings calendar. No major Federal Reserve speech appears on the Board’s public calendar today, so the numbers get the microphone.

IPO Watch

Football Manager SPAC (FBLLU) filed on September 9 to raise $115 million. It is a SPAC, a cash shell created to buy an unidentified business. The trading date and price range are not set. Watch what it buys, because an empty box can become expensive cardboard.
Harbour Island Acquisition Corp. I (HRIAU) also filed on September 9 to raise $115 million. It is another cash shell, with no trading date or price range yet. Watch sponsor incentives and the target, because sponsors can win while later buyers lose. Source: Nasdaq IPO calendar, updated September 10.

Levels I Am Watching

SPY: $758.19 before the bell. $758.00 is this morning’s floor where buyers last appeared, while $760.94 is yesterday’s low and now the first ceiling. Above $762.40, yesterday’s close, the damage starts to look repairable.
QQQ: $707.70 before the bell. $707.43 is the morning floor. $714.02 is yesterday’s low and the first ceiling, what traders call resistance. $716.31 is yesterday’s close and the tougher checkpoint.
Meta: $651.71 before the bell. $648.00 is the morning floor, $653.69 is yesterday’s close, and $664.50 is the ceiling where sellers showed up overnight. Sources: Yahoo Finance one-minute quotes at 8:46 a.m. ET.

Term of the Day

A failed breakout happens when a price pushes above an old ceiling, then quickly falls back underneath it. Think of a cook lifting a soufflé too early: the rise looked real until the structure gave way.

The Posture

Patient, hands in pockets until price proves it can stand up after the inflation punch.

Stay sharp. Stay honest. DBTech45.