Signal and Noise

Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 8:45 a.m. ET. The inflation report just came in hotter than expected, and that is the only thing that matters before the bell. Prices paid by consumers rose 3.7% in July from a year earlier, above the 3.6% forecast, according to the U.S. PCE report at 8:30 a.m. PCE means Personal Consumption Expenditures, a fancy name for the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation thermometer. You should care because hotter prices can keep interest rates high, which makes loans costlier and high-priced stocks harder to defend. The market just got a stiffer bar bill.

Yesterday’s Scoreboard

SPY closed at $765.79, up 0.31%. That is a small gain for the fund that tracks America’s biggest public companies.
QQQ closed at $710.66, up 0.61%. Big technology companies did most of the lifting.
DIA closed at $535.16, up 0.29%. The old-line Dow added a third straight green day.
IWM closed at $299.25, up 0.43%. Smaller companies kept pace, a good sign that the rally was not riding one giant tech shoulder.

Among the active names I checked, Rezolve AI (RZLV) was the best, up 21.8% to $2.96, but I could not verify a clean catalyst. That makes the move spicy and the story weak. Zoom Communications (ZM) was the worst in that set, down 3.7% to $100.99 as traders cut risk before its earnings report. Source: Alpaca IEX daily bars, August 25 close.

The Signal

Inflation bit back. Headline PCE rose 3.7% year over year versus 3.6% expected, while core PCE, which strips out jumpy food and energy prices, held at 3.3%. The plain meaning: the Fed has less room to cut rates, so the opening can get choppy. Source: U.S. PCE release and Benzinga, 8:30 a.m. ET.
Nvidia (NVDA) owns tonight. Wall Street expects $92 billion in revenue and $2.09 in earnings per share, the company’s profit divided by its shares, according to Benzinga and the Nasdaq (NDAQ) earnings calendar. The plain meaning: the chip giant can move the entire tech aisle after the bell.
Guidance beat the headlines. Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) raised its full-year earnings outlook to $13.10 to $13.60 per share after earning $4.17 in the quarter, while Intuit (INTU) fell to $322.01 at 8:39 a.m. ET when its next-quarter outlook missed forecasts. The plain meaning: the market pays up for a strong future and punishes a weak one, even when the past quarter looked fine. Source: Benzinga and Alpaca IEX.

The Noise

The “AI bubble pops now” hot take has no new revenue, orders or customer data behind it. It is a fire alarm triggered by someone making toast.
OpenAI (private) needling Nvidia with its Jalapeño chip, built with Broadcom (AVGO), makes a great robot-fight headline and a terrible earnings model. The plain meaning: wait for actual supply, sales and customers before crowning a new champion.
Prediction-market odds putting the S&P 500 open at 50-50 are not an edge. That is a coin flip wearing a tie.

On the Clock

8:30 a.m. ET: PCE inflation, revised second-quarter economic growth, consumer spending and durable-goods orders all arrived. Growth matched the 1.5% forecast, while durable-goods orders jumped 1.1% versus 0.4% expected. That mix says the economy still has heat and inflation still has teeth.
10:30 a.m. ET: U.S. crude-oil inventories. A big build in stored oil can push oil prices down, while a big draw can push them up, and energy prices feed directly into the inflation fight.
Before the bell: Abercrombie & Fitch and Williams-Sonoma (WSM) both beat expectations and raised their outlooks. When consumers still buy denim and $234 pans, they are not dead yet.
After the bell: Nvidia, CrowdStrike (CRWD), Salesforce (CRM) and Synopsys (SNPS) report. Watch what they say about next quarter, not just what they earned last quarter. That forward look is called guidance, and it is where stocks often live or die.
I could not verify a scheduled Fed speaker today. No podium, no problem. The data and earnings are loud enough.

IPO Watch

JATT III Acquisition Corp (JTTT): expected August 26 at $10 a share, offering 6 million shares. It is a blank-check company, meaning it has no operating business yet and plans to buy one later. Beginners should watch first-day trading volume, the number of shares changing hands, because thin trading can turn $10 into a pinball.
Southern Cross Acquisition II Corp. (SCATU): expected August 26 at $10 a unit, offering 7.5 million units. This is another blank-check deal. A unit usually bundles a share and a right to buy more later, so read the small print before the ticker starts dancing. Source: Nasdaq IPO calendar, updated August 26.

Levels I Am Watching

SPY $764.85: the latest trade at 8:37 a.m. ET on Alpaca’s IEX feed. $763.09 is yesterday’s low, the floor where buyers last stepped in. $766.72 is yesterday’s high, the ceiling where sellers last took control.
QQQ $708.28: the latest trade at 8:40 a.m. ET on Alpaca’s IEX feed. $707.50 is the nearby floor. $713.93 is the ceiling. Between them, the tape is just chopping onions.
Intuit $322.01: the latest trade at 8:39 a.m. ET on Alpaca’s IEX feed, down 9.85% from yesterday’s $357.20 close. That $357.20 close is now the gap ceiling, the price the stock must recover to erase this morning’s shock. The opening low will give us the first real floor.

Term of the Day

An earnings whisper is the unofficial number traders quietly expect a company to beat, even if the published forecast is lower. It is like a kitchen crew expecting 60 dinners while the reservation book says 50, meeting the book can still feel like a miss.

The Posture

Patient, not passive. The first move after hot inflation can lie, and tonight’s chip report can rewrite the whole table.

DBTech45