The Flex

The Snap

Fine print first. Only three games have been played, so the pack's last-3 window and its season baseline cover the same three games, and every last-3 number matches the season number. There is no week-over-week jump to report, and I won't invent one. The pack does show how far usage has moved from August draft prices, and the biggest gap is in Arizona.

Michael Wilson went at an 87.0 ADP (average draft position in August drafts). He gets 10.3 targets a game and a 26% target share. Target share is the percentage of the team's pass attempts thrown at this player. Volume is the most stable thing in fantasy, and this is volume. His air yards share is 41%. Air yards share is the share of the team's intended throwing distance that went to this player. It shows who gets the deep, high-value looks. Together that makes a 0.67 WOPR. WOPR is Weighted Opportunity Rating: target share and air yards share blended into one number. Above 0.6 is elite usage, 0.4 to 0.6 is a weekly starter's diet. His snap share is 91%. Snap share is the percentage of the offense's plays this player was on the field for. You cannot score from the bench.

Marvin Harrison Jr. went at 63.8. He has a 7% target share, 3.8 PPR points a game and zero red zone touches. Red zone touches are carries and targets inside the opponent's 20. This is where the touchdowns live. He plays 77% of snaps, so he hasn't been benched. The targets just go to other players, and the pack's depth chart lists Wilson first.

Jacoby Brissett, the listed starter, throws 40.3 passes a game, and Trey McBride has a 28% target share. That leaves room for one receiver, and it's Wilson. Arizona visits the Giants Sunday at 1:00 PM ET. New York gives up 35.9 PPR points a game to receivers, 10th softest in the league. PPR points allowed means fantasy points (one point per catch) a defense has given up to a position each game. High number, soft matchup. Start Wilson as a WR2 and keep Harrison on your bench. What would make me wrong: Harrison still gets 22% of the air yards, and two deep catches would change his box score. One big box score doesn't change his role, though.

Usage Report

Season and last-3 numbers are identical, so "up" and "down" here mean usage running ahead of or behind draft price. I kept both columns so you can see they match. Carry share is the percentage of the team's running back carries this player got. Goal line carries are carries from inside the 5. The most valuable touch in fantasy. Both Arizona receivers are covered above.

Usage up

• Walker (ADP 28.5): 21.7 carries a game, 5 goal line carries, 26.4 PPR points a game. Start him every week.
• Golden (ADP 109.2): 10.0 targets a game, 39% air yards share, 0.61 WOPR. That's elite usage for a late pick.
• Downs (ADP 112.3): 44% air yards share, 0.65 WOPR. He gets the Colts' deep targets.
• Emanuel Wilson (no ADP): a 28% snap share, but a 41% carry share and 6 goal line carries. His 3.6 PPR points a game haven't caught up to the role yet.

Usage down

• Barkley (ADP 13.9): 7.0 PPR points a game. He's still first on the depth chart but is being used like half of a committee. Flex only.
• Achane (ADP 12.6): 8.2 PPR points a game, and the depth chart lists him third, behind Jaylen Wright and Ollie Gordon II. He isn't on the injury report, and I won't guess why. Miami's implied team total is 14.0, the lowest on the slate. Implied team total is how many points the betting market expects a team to score, worked out from the spread and the total. Bigger number, more touchdowns to go around. Bench him.
• Thomas (ADP 67.8): 5.3 PPR points a game, and he's listed third at receiver. Parker Washington has a 27% target share and a 0.73 WOPR. Bench.
• Price (ADP 52.4): 1 goal line carry and 4.7 PPR points a game. Emanuel Wilson gets the carries that score.

Buy Low, Sell High

Buy low

• George Pickens, DAL: 23% target share, 0.57 WOPR, 82% snap share and only 10.3 PPR points a game. Offer a bench player who is scoring above his usage. The targets should turn into points.
• Jaylen Waddle, DEN: 45% air yards share and a 0.63 WOPR for 9.1 PPR points a game. Bo Nix (3 interceptions) is holding him back, not his role. Pay a WR3 price.
• Malik Nabers, NYG: 21% target share and a 0.5 WOPR for 7.2 PPR points a game. Arizona allows 36.4 PPR points a game to receivers, 7th softest. Buy before Sunday.

Sell high

• Christian Watson, GB: 23.1 PPR points a game, but Golden gets more targets (10.0 to 9.7 a game) and more air yards (39% to 28%). That gap points to regression: pulling an extreme number back toward average because small samples lie. A 6-0 team is good; it is not undefeated-good. Sell him as a WR1.
• Jalen Coker, CAR: 17.4 PPR points a game on a 17% target share and a 65% snap share. Tetairoa McMillan gets more targets (7.7 to 7.3 a game). Sell Coker and use the return to buy McMillan.
• Mike Evans, SF: 14.6 PPR points a game on a 54% snap share. Brock Purdy has 9 touchdown passes on 27.7 attempts a game, and that pace won't last. Sell to the manager who watched those touchdowns.

Waiver Wire

ADP is only a rough proxy for who is rostered. Each name below either had no August ADP (a true free agent or a name the ADP feed missed) or wasn't in this pack's ADP, so check your wire first. FAAB is your free agent acquisition budget, and the bids below are percentages of a full budget.

1. Juwan Johnson, TE, NO (15%): 16.1 PPR points and 2.0 red zone touches a game. His 13% target share comes from an offense running 74.0 plays a game, the most in the pack. Hosts Atlanta Monday at 8:15 PM ET.

2. Dalton Schultz, TE, HOU (12%): 8.3 targets a game and a 19% target share. Dallas gives up 17.3 PPR points a game to tight ends, 8th softest.

3. Kalif Raymond, WR, CHI (10%): 20% target share and 15.5 PPR points a game, but only a 61% snap share as the listed WR3. The target share is real, but the low snap count is the risk.

4. Keenan Allen, WR, IND (8%): 19% target share. Washington allows 46.7 PPR points a game to receivers, the softest in the league. Kickoff is Sunday at 9:30 AM ET, so set your lineup early.

5. Emanuel Wilson, RB, SEA (7%): Seattle's goal line back, on a team implied for 24.8 points against the Chargers.

6. Devaughn Vele, WR, NO (5%): 92% snap share and 7.3 targets a game.

7. Dontayvion Wicks, WR, PHI (3%): 30% air yards share and a 0.45 WOPR.

Injury Report

The official injury report in the pack lists no skill-position players this week.

• Out: none listed.
• Doubtful: none listed.
• Questionable: none listed.

No backup is being forced into a bigger role this week. Here is the next man up behind each of the heaviest workloads, from this week's depth charts:

Brian Robinson Jr. is the only one of these backups already getting real work: a 29% carry share and 10.0 carries a game.

The Setup

Top implied team totals, from DraftKings via ESPN:

Jacksonville at Cincinnati has the biggest total on the slate, 51.5. The total is the over/under on combined points from both teams. Start Tee Higgins (46% air yards share) and Parker Washington (0.73 WOPR). Detroit allows 30.8 PPR points a game to quarterbacks and 33.4 to tight ends, the softest in the league at both positions. That makes Bryce Young (42.3 attempts a game) this week's streaming quarterback. The pack lists no teams on bye, so you have no lineup holes to fill. Use the spare roster spots to stash the waiver names above. One lineup warning: Pittsburgh at Cleveland kicks off Thursday at 8:15 PM ET with a 38.5 total, tied for the lowest on the slate, so decide on those players before then.

Plain English

• ADP: Average draft position, where a player went in August drafts. Only a rough guide to who is rostered.
• FAAB: Free agent acquisition budget, the blind-bid money you spend on waivers.
• Target share: The percentage of the team's pass attempts thrown at this player. Volume is the most stable thing in fantasy, and this is volume.
• Air yards share: The share of the team's intended throwing distance that went to this player. It shows who gets the deep, high-value looks.
• WOPR: Weighted Opportunity Rating: target share and air yards share blended into one number. Above 0.6 is elite usage, 0.4 to 0.6 is a weekly starter's diet.
• Snap share: The percentage of the offense's plays this player was on the field for. You cannot score from the bench.
• Red zone touches: Carries and targets inside the opponent's 20. This is where the touchdowns live.
• Carry share: The percentage of the team's running back carries this player got.
• Goal line carries: Carries from inside the 5. The most valuable touch in fantasy.
• PPR points allowed: Fantasy points (one point per catch) a defense has given up to a position each game. High number, soft matchup.
• Implied team total: How many points the betting market expects a team to score, worked out from the spread and the total. Bigger number, more touchdowns to go around.
• Total: The over/under on combined points from both teams.
• Regression: Pulling an extreme number back toward average because small samples lie. A 6-0 team is good; it is not undefeated-good.

Sources

Usage and snap counts from nflverse play-by-play; lines and implied totals from DraftKings via ESPN; depth charts and injury reports from the league's official feeds via nflverse; ADP from August standard-scoring drafts.