The Flex: Rashee Rice Took Kansas City's Targets, and Travis Kelce Paid for It
The Snap
Rashee Rice runs the Chiefs' passing game now. His target share went from 17% over weeks 1 to 5 to 38% over the last three weeks. That is the highest last-three mark of anyone in this week's pack. Target share is the percentage of the team's pass attempts thrown at this player. Volume is the most stable thing in fantasy, and this is volume.
Those targets came from the tight end. Travis Kelce's share fell from 16% to 11%, and his PPR points (one point per catch) dropped from 13.2 a game to 8.7. Over the same stretch Rice went from 5.7 targets a game to 9.0, from 12.7 PPR points to 15.8, and from 1.3 red zone touches a game to 2.0. Red zone touches are carries and targets inside the opponent's 20. This is where the touchdowns live.
Kansas City hosts the Chargers Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET, and DraftKings gives the Chiefs a 25.5 implied team total. Implied team total is how many points the betting market expects a team to score, worked out from the spread and the total. Bigger number, more touchdowns to go around.
The call: Rice is a WR1 this week. The thing that could make me wrong is the sample. He played three of the first five games, and his snap share is 62%. Snap share is the percentage of the offense's plays this player was on the field for. You cannot score from the bench. If Kelce's share drifts back toward 16%, Rice settles in as a strong WR2. For now Kelce is a tight end you start only if you have to.
Usage Report
"Season" means weeks 1 to 5. "Last 3" means the three most recent weeks. Air yards share is the share of the team's intended throwing distance that went to this player. It shows who gets the deep, high-value looks. WOPR is Weighted Opportunity Rating: target share and air yards share blended into one number. Above 0.6 is elite usage, 0.4 to 0.6 is a weekly starter's diet. Carry share is the percentage of the team's running back carries this player got.
Usage up
| Player | Team | Season tgt share | Last 3 tgt share | RZ touches/g (season / last 3) | Snap % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | KC | 17% | 38% | 1.3 / 2.0 | 62 |
| Drake London | ATL | 25% | 32% | 0.0 / 0.0 | 88 |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI | 15% | 22% | 0.7 / 0.0 | 63 |
| Kyle Monangai | CHI | 4% | 1% | 3.8 / 5.5 | 40 |
- Drake London had a 0.67 WOPR and a 43% air yards share for the season. Over the last three he's at 9.0 targets and 20.6 PPR points a game, and he still has zero red zone touches. When the touchdowns start coming, look out. Start him against Chicago.
- Dallas Goedert is up to 9.0 targets a game from 5.3, but his PPR fell from 11.6 to 9.8. Expect the points to catch up.
- Kyle Monangai is about carries, not targets. He's at 20.0 carries a game lately, up from 15.0, on a 39% season carry share, with 5.5 red zone touches a game. D'Andre Swift is still listed first on the depth chart, but he slid to 14.7 carries and 11.8 PPR a game. Swift does lead 10 to 6 in goal line carries. Goal line carries are carries from inside the 5. The most valuable touch in fantasy. The job is moving to Monangai anyway.
Usage down
| Player | Team | Season tgt share | Last 3 tgt share | RZ touches/g (season / last 3) | Snap % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Coker | CAR | 17% | 8% | 1.7 / 0.0 | 65 |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF | 15% | 9% | 0.4 / 0.3 | 66 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | 16% | 11% | 0.5 / 0.5 | 80 |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | 22% | 14% | 1.2 / 0.5 | 73 |
- Jalen Coker dropped from 7.3 targets a game to 4.0 and from 17.4 PPR to 3.8. In the same stretch Darren Waller's share rose from 11% to 15%. Bench Coker.
- Dalton Kincaid is down to 2.4 PPR a game, while DJ Moore's share climbed from 15% to 18%. You can drop him in 12-team leagues.
- Travis Kelce still has an 80% season snap share. He's on the field, but the targets went elsewhere.
- Justin Jefferson is at 4.5 targets a game, and Jordan Addison has passed him at 21%. Minnesota is on bye next week, so hold him and check again after the bye.
Buy Low, Sell High
Buy low (usage up, points lagging)
- Derrick Henry, BAL. His carries rose from 22.8 a game to 24.7 and his red zone touches from 6.0 to 6.3. His 14 goal line carries are the most of any back in the pack. His PPR dipped from 22.0 to 18.9. Trade pitch: offer a WR2 coming off a hot month.
- Dallas Goedert, PHI. He has a 22% share but only 9.8 PPR a game, and Carolina is next. Carolina's PPR points allowed to tight ends is 16.6 a game, eighth softest in the league. PPR points allowed are fantasy points (one point per catch) a defense has given up to a position each game. High number, soft matchup. Trade pitch: a bench receiver should get him.
- DJ Moore, BUF. His share is up from 15% to 18% while his PPR fell from 12.1 to 7.7. Buffalo's implied total next week is 29.8. Trade pitch: ask for him as the throw-in on a bigger deal.
Sell high (points up, usage flat or down)
- Jaylen Warren, PIT. He's at 24.3 PPR a game lately, up from 18.6, but his share only moved from 14% to 15%. He has zero goal line carries this season. Trade pitch: sell him for a back who gets the short touchdowns.
- George Pickens, DAL. His share is flat at 20% while his PPR rose from 13.7 to 17.6. CeeDee Lamb still has 26%. Trade pitch: if someone in your league pays WR1 money for that 17.6, take it.
- Jameson Williams, DET. His share slipped from 14% to 13%, but his PPR rose from 11.5 to 14.6. Detroit is on bye next week. Trade pitch: move him before he scores you a zero.
Waiver Wire
ADP (average draft position, from August drafts) is only a rough proxy for who is rostered, so check your league before you bid. FAAB is your free agent acquisition budget. The bids below are a percent of the full-season budget.
1. Kyle Monangai, RB, CHI: 25%. An ADP of 95.0 means he was drafted in a lot of leagues. If he's available, he's the best add on the board. He's getting 20.0 carries and 5.5 red zone touches a game lately, and Chicago's implied total at Atlanta is 26.2.
2. Emanuel Wilson, RB, SEA: 18%. He's first on Seattle's depth chart with a 54% carry share, 16.7 carries a game lately and 7 goal line carries. Denver allows 26.3 PPR a game to backs, seventh softest. Seattle plays at Denver Thursday at 8:15 p.m. ET, so claim him now.
3. Keenan Allen, WR, IND: 12%. He's listed behind Josh Downs on the depth chart, but his 21% share is ahead of Downs' 17%. That's 9.0 targets and 13.9 PPR a game lately. Tennessee allows 35.9 PPR a game to receivers, 10th softest.
4. Juwan Johnson, TE, NO: 9%. His share is up from 15% to 18%, and he's scoring 13.6 PPR a game lately. He's a good fill-in at tight end for the bye week.
5. Brenton Strange, TE, JAX: 7%. His ADP was 165.1, and his share is up from 17% to 21%. Houston ranks 27th softest against tight ends, so you're getting volume, not a big ceiling.
6. Braelon Allen, RB, NYJ: 6%. His carries went from 11.4 a game to 14.0 while Breece Hall's fell from 17.0 to 13.0. The Jets' 18.0 implied total limits his upside. Stash him, don't start him.
Injury Report
Out: none. Doubtful: none. Questionable: none.
The official injury report in this week's pack lists no skill-position players. Here is the next man up behind the busiest backs, from this week's depth charts:
- Derrick Henry: Justice Hill
- Jonathan Taylor: Seth McGowan
- Kenneth Walker III: Emmett Johnson
- Bijan Robinson: Brian Robinson Jr.
- Emanuel Wilson: George Holani
The Setup
Next week's top implied team totals, from DraftKings via ESPN:
| Team | Opponent | Kickoff (ET) | Implied total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rams | vs Cardinals | Sun 4:05 p.m. | 33.0 |
| Bills | at Raiders | Sun 4:25 p.m. | 29.8 |
| 49ers | vs Commanders | Mon 8:15 p.m. | 29.0 |
| Packers | vs Cowboys | Sun 8:20 p.m. | 27.0 |
| Bears | at Falcons | Sun 1:00 p.m. | 26.2 |
| Colts | vs Titans | Sun 1:00 p.m. | 25.8 |
The Rams' 33.0 is the number of the week. Puka Nacua has 18.0 targets a game over the last three, and Kyren Williams is scoring 26.0 PPR a game. Start both.
The Bengals, Lions, Dolphins and Vikings are on bye. That takes out Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson in the same week. Fill those spots now: Wilson at running back, Keenan Allen at flex and Juwan Johnson at tight end. The lowest totals on the board are the Chargers at 17.0 and the Jets and Browns at 18.0. Avoid those offenses where you can.
Seahawks at Broncos kicks off Thursday at 8:15 p.m. ET, so set those players before then.
Plain English
- Target share: The percentage of the team's pass attempts thrown at this player. Volume is the most stable thing in fantasy, and this is volume.
- Air yards share: The share of the team's intended throwing distance that went to this player. It shows who gets the deep, high-value looks.
- WOPR: Weighted Opportunity Rating: target share and air yards share blended into one number. Above 0.6 is elite usage, 0.4 to 0.6 is a weekly starter's diet.
- Carry share: The percentage of the team's running back carries this player got.
- Red zone touches: Carries and targets inside the opponent's 20. This is where the touchdowns live.
- Goal line carries: Carries from inside the 5. The most valuable touch in fantasy.
- Snap share: The percentage of the offense's plays this player was on the field for. You cannot score from the bench.
- Implied team total: How many points the betting market expects a team to score, worked out from the spread and the total. Bigger number, more touchdowns to go around.
- PPR points allowed: Fantasy points (one point per catch) a defense has given up to a position each game. High number, soft matchup.
Sources
Usage comes from nflverse play-by-play and snap counts. Implied totals come from DraftKings via ESPN. Depth charts and injury reports come from the league's official feeds via nflverse. ADP is from August drafts and is only a rough guide to who is rostered.