The Flex

The Snap

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the first lineup decision of 2026, and it is not a decision. Last season he ran a 32% target share, the percentage of the team's pass attempts thrown at this player. Volume is the most stable thing in fantasy, and this is volume. He also took a 49% air yards share, the share of the team's intended throwing distance that went to this player, which shows who gets the deep, high-value looks. Blend the two into WOPR, Weighted Opportunity Rating: target share and air yards share blended into one number. Above 0.6 is elite usage, 0.4 to 0.6 is a weekly starter's diet. His was 0.82. Nobody else in the pack tops 0.76. That bought him 105.5 receiving yards and 21.2 PPR points a game, on a 77% snap share, the percentage of the offense's plays this player was on the field for. You cannot score from the bench, and he was scoring on a part-time snap count.

The matchup is fine, not soft. New England gave up 29.0 PPR points allowed to wide receivers per game last year, which is fantasy points (one point per catch) a defense has given up to a position each game. High number, soft matchup. That was 20th softest. Its pass defense ranked 11th by EPA per play, Expected Points Added: how many points a play moved the team toward scoring compared with an average play from the same spot. Positive is good on offense, negative is good on defense. Sam Darnold posted 0.13 EPA per dropback and a 5.2 CPOE, Completion Percentage Over Expected: how much better or worse a quarterback completed passes than the difficulty of the throws would predict. New England at Seattle kicks off Sept 9 at 8:20 PM ET. Start him. What would make me wrong on the ceiling: Rashid Shaheed arrived from New Orleans with a 20% target share, so the pie has a second mouth.

One Week 1 rule before anything else. Every usage number in this issue is 2025, so a lot of it came with a different roster. A.J. Brown is in New England, Kenneth Walker III is in Kansas City, Jaylen Waddle is in Denver, Keenan Allen is in Indianapolis, Kyler Murray starts in Minnesota, Tua Tagovailoa starts in Atlanta. And two names are missing. The Packers depth chart in the pack lists MarShawn Lloyd, Chris Brooks, and Kaleb Johnson at running back, and does not list Josh Jacobs at all. Seattle lists Jadarian Price, George Holani, and Emanuel Wilson, not Zach Charbonnet. I am not starting a back the depth chart does not show until it does.

The Setup

An implied team total is how many points the betting market expects a team to score, worked out from the spread and the total. Bigger number, more touchdowns to go around. Here are the top seven games by total, all from DraftKings via ESPN. Kickoff times are Eastern.

The Chargers carry the biggest implied total on the board at 28.5, with Detroit at 28.2 and Cincinnati at 27.0. Cincinnati is the game I care about most, because the Bengals defense was a buffet. It allowed 28.5 PPR points to running backs and 21.0 to tight ends, softest in the league at both spots, and ranked 28th in pass defense EPA. Dallas is the other target: 23.4 to quarterbacks and 39.1 to wide receivers, both the most in the league, with pass and rush defense ranked 31st. The Giants side of that game ranked 32nd against the run and allowed 26.0 to backs.

Fade the bottom. Jets at Titans is 38.5 with both offenses under 20.0 implied. Browns at Jaguars is 40.5 with Cleveland at 16.0, the lowest number on the slate. Dolphins at Raiders is 40.5 and Miami's depth chart lists Malik Willis at quarterback. No teams are on bye.

Usage Report

Carry share is the percentage of the team's running back carries this player got. Red zone touches are carries and targets inside the opponent's 20. This is where the touchdowns live. Goal line carries are carries from inside the 5. The most valuable touch in fantasy.

Bucky Irving and Kenny Gainwell, TB. Irving had a 60% carry share and 17.3 carries a game but zero goal line carries in 10 games. Gainwell, new from Pittsburgh, had 9 goal line carries, a 15% target share, and 13.0 PPR points a game there. That baseline came with a different roster, so treat it as a role hint, not a projection. Against a Bengals defense that allowed 28.5 PPR points to backs, softest in the league, both are playable. Irving is the start, Gainwell the PPR flex.

Javonte Williams, DAL. A 60% carry share, 20 goal line carries, 4.1 red zone touches a game, and a 46% rushing success rate. Success rate is the share of plays that kept the offense on schedule (roughly 40% of the yards needed on 1st down, 60% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th). The Giants ranked 32nd against the run and gave up 26.0 PPR points to backs, 4th softest. He is a top play this week.

Malik Nabers, NYG. Four games, so the data is thin. But 8.8 targets, a 24% target share, a 48% air yards share, and a 0.70 WOPR are alpha numbers. Dallas allowed 39.1 PPR points to receivers, the most in the league. Start him and do not overthink the sample.

Alec Pierce and Keenan Allen, IND. Pierce's 42% air yards share came on a 16% target share because his average throw traveled 19.0 yards downfield. That is a boom-bust WR3 who booms this week: Baltimore allowed 35.9 PPR points to receivers, 3rd softest, and ranked 21st in pass defense. Allen arrived from the Chargers with 7.2 targets a game, a 20% target share, and a 0.45 WOPR, all built in a different offense. The depth chart lists him third. He is the pickup, not the start, until we see his snaps.

Kenneth Walker III, KC. In Seattle he had a 45% carry share on a 47% snap share, 8 goal line carries, and a 38% rushing success rate. Kansas City lists him first, ahead of Emmett Johnson and Brashard Smith, but nothing in the pack tells us how that room splits. Denver allowed 17.2 PPR points to backs, fewest in the league, and 17.8 points a game. Bench him Sept 14 at 8:15 PM ET and buy the film.

Rashee Rice, KC. Eight games: 9.9 targets, a 25% target share, a 14% air yards share, 2.8 red zone touches a game, and 18.5 PPR points. His average target traveled 4.3 yards. His value is catches and goal line looks, not bombs. Denver allowed 27.0 PPR points to receivers, 24th softest, with a 6th-ranked pass defense. Still a start on volume alone.

Jaylen Waddle and Courtland Sutton, DEN. Waddle ran a 41% air yards share and a 0.59 WOPR in Miami. Sutton ran 34% and 0.53 in Denver. Both had a 20% target share. Bo Nix threw 37.5 times a game, so there is room, but one of those air yards numbers has to shrink. Sutton had 1.2 red zone touches to Waddle's 0.7. Sutton is the safer start at Kansas City, which allowed 27.8 PPR points to receivers, 21st.

Start-Sit

QB

• Start: Matthew Stafford. 46 touchdowns and 0.23 EPA per dropback, implied 26.0, against a 49ers pass defense ranked 25th that allowed 17.5 PPR points to quarterbacks.
• Start: Dak Prescott. 0.17 EPA per dropback on 37.1 attempts, implied 25.8, Giants allowed 18.4 to quarterbacks, 10th softest.
• Start: Justin Herbert. Implied 28.5, the biggest on the slate. Arizona ranked 27th against the pass.
• Sit: Jayden Daniels. Implied 19.5, Philadelphia allowed 14.9 to quarterbacks, 23rd, with a 5th-ranked pass defense.
• Sit: Jordan Love. Minnesota allowed 11.7 to quarterbacks, fewest in the league.
• Sit: C.J. Stroud. Buffalo allowed 13.5 to quarterbacks, 28th, with a 7th-ranked pass defense.

RB

• Start: Javonte Williams, Bucky Irving, Omarion Hampton (implied 28.5, Arizona allowed 27.1 to backs, 3rd softest).
• Start: Tony Pollard as a flex. 65% carry share against a Jets defense that allowed 28.0 to backs, 2nd softest.
• Sit: Kenneth Walker III (Denver, 17.2 allowed, 32nd). Quinshon Judkins (implied 16.0, Jacksonville allowed 18.8, 30th). Aaron Jones (49% carry share, 3 goal line carries, Green Bay allowed 21.9, 18th).

WR

• Start: Malik Nabers, Zay Flowers (0.63 WOPR, Indianapolis allowed 36.1 to receivers, 2nd softest), Alec Pierce, Ja'Marr Chase (11.6 targets, implied 27.0), CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens (Giants allowed 33.1, 9th).
• Start: Garrett Wilson. A 0.76 WOPR on a 29% target share in 7 games. Tennessee allowed 35.7 to receivers, 4th softest. Geno Smith's 17 interceptions and -0.15 EPA per dropback are the risk.
• Sit: A.J. Brown. His 0.64 WOPR was built in Philadelphia. Seattle allowed 26.1 to receivers, 29th, and ranked 8th against the pass. Implied 20.8.
• Sit: DJ Moore. A 14% target share in Chicago, now in Buffalo against Houston, the top-ranked pass defense that allowed 25.5 to receivers, 31st.
• Sit: Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs. Implied 19.5, Philadelphia allowed 26.5 to receivers, 26th.

TE

• Start: Trey McBride. 10.0 targets and a 91% snap share beat the matchup (Chargers allowed 10.5, 28th).
• Start: Brock Bowers. 7.2 targets, Miami allowed 16.5 to tight ends, 4th softest.
• Start: Cade Otton as a streamer. 94% snap share, Bengals allowed 21.0 to tight ends, softest in the league.
• Sit: Tyler Warren. Baltimore allowed 11.4 to tight ends, 24th, even with his 20% target share.

Coin flips

• Rhamondre Stevenson vs SEA. TreVeyon Henderson is out, and Stevenson had 12 goal line carries. But Seattle ranked 1st against the run and allowed 19.2 to backs, 28th. Tiebreaker: implied 20.8. Flex only if you are thin.
• Tucker Kraft vs MIN. 14.7 PPR points in 8 games against a defense that allowed 10.8 to tight ends, 27th. Tiebreaker: 1.5 red zone touches a game. Lean start.
• George Kittle at LA. 20% target share when healthy. He was limited in practice with an Achilles and is not on the final report yet. Tiebreaker: if he is active, start him; Rams allowed 12.8 to tight ends, 19th.

Waiver Wire

ADP here is from August standard-scoring drafts and is only a rough proxy for who is rostered. Check your own league.

1. Jake Ferguson, TE, DAL. Listed TE1. 6.1 targets, a 16% target share, 1.5 red zone touches a game, implied 25.8. ADP 165.9, so he went undrafted in plenty of 12-team rooms. Spend 12% of FAAB.

2. Keenan Allen, WR, IND. Listed WR3. A 20% target share in Los Angeles, facing Baltimore's 3rd-softest receiver matchup. No ADP in the feed, so he may be sitting there. 8%.

3. Cade Otton, TE, TB. Listed TE1, 94% snap share, 5.5 targets, and the softest tight end matchup in the league at Cincinnati. 5%.

4. Justice Hill, RB, BAL. Listed RB2 behind Derrick Henry. 3.4 targets a game in 8 games, implied 25.5. Handcuff with PPR standalone. 4%.

5. Hunter Henry, TE, NE. Listed TE1, 5.1 targets, 1.3 red zone touches, 10.5 PPR points. Seattle allowed 14.7 to tight ends, 10th softest. 4%.

6. Kayshon Boutte, WR, HOU. Listed WR2, new from New England, where his average target traveled 17.0 yards. A deep-ball dart, not a PPR floor. 3%.

7. Troy Franklin, WR, DEN. Listed WR3. 6.3 targets, a 17% target share, 10.1 PPR points. Waddle's arrival caps him. 2%.

Injury Report

Everything below is from the official reports in the pack. No guessing on severity.

Out

• TreVeyon Henderson, RB, NE (ankle, did not practice). He had a 39% carry share and 8 goal line carries. Rhamondre Stevenson is the lead back, Corey Kiner is next on the depth chart.

Questionable

• Tory Horton, WR, SEA (hamstring, limited). Listed WR4 behind Smith-Njigba, Shaheed, and Cooper Kupp. An 11% target share in 7 games. No lineup impact unless you are deep.

Practice notes, not on the final report yet

• George Kittle, TE, SF (Achilles, limited). Jake Tonges is TE2 and had 5.1 targets a game in 9 games.
• Tyler Higbee, TE, LA (rest, did not practice). Colby Parkinson is listed TE1 anyway.
• AJ Barner, TE, SEA (oblique, full participation). Listed TE1.
• Emanuel Wilson, RB, SEA (hamstring, full participation). Listed RB3.

Plain English

• Target share: The percentage of the team's pass attempts thrown at this player. Volume is the most stable thing in fantasy, and this is volume.
• Air yards share: The share of the team's intended throwing distance that went to this player. It shows who gets the deep, high-value looks.
• WOPR: Weighted Opportunity Rating: target share and air yards share blended into one number. Above 0.6 is elite usage, 0.4 to 0.6 is a weekly starter's diet.
• Snap share: The percentage of the offense's plays this player was on the field for. You cannot score from the bench.
• PPR points allowed: Fantasy points (one point per catch) a defense has given up to a position each game. High number, soft matchup.
• EPA per play: Expected Points Added: how many points a play moved the team toward scoring compared with an average play from the same spot. Positive is good on offense, negative is good on defense.
• CPOE: Completion Percentage Over Expected: how much better or worse a quarterback completed passes than the difficulty of the throws would predict.
• Implied team total: How many points the betting market expects a team to score, worked out from the spread and the total. Bigger number, more touchdowns to go around.
• Carry share: The percentage of the team's running back carries this player got.
• Red zone touches: Carries and targets inside the opponent's 20. This is where the touchdowns live.
• Goal line carries: Carries from inside the 5. The most valuable touch in fantasy.
• Success rate: The share of plays that kept the offense on schedule (roughly 40% of the yards needed on 1st down, 60% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th).

Sources

Usage from nflverse play-by-play and snap counts (2025 full season). Lines, totals, and implied totals from DraftKings via ESPN. Depth charts and injury reports from the league's official feeds via nflverse. ADP from August standard-scoring drafts.