The Flex: Jefferson Is Out, So Your Minnesota Start Is Aaron Jones, Not Jordan Addison
The Snap
Pittsburgh-Cleveland is final, and Indianapolis-Washington kicked off at 9:30 AM ET, so those players are locked. Justin Jefferson, DeVonta Smith and Breece Hall are Out. Chicago loses Caleb Williams and Tampa Bay loses Baker Mayfield. The biggest call is Miami at Minnesota (4:05 PM ET), and it comes down to PPR points allowed: Fantasy points (one point per catch) a defense has given up to a position each game. High number, soft matchup. Miami has allowed 32.9 to running backs, the most in the league, and 24.2 to receivers, 28th-softest. In the flex, start Aaron Jones over Jordan Addison. If Minnesota has to throw, I'm wrong. But Miami's implied team total is 14.2, the lowest on the board. Implied team total: How many points the betting market expects a team to score, worked out from the spread and the total. Bigger number, more touchdowns to go around.
Injury Report
Nobody is Doubtful. The next man comes from this week's depth chart.
Out
| Player | Next on the depth chart | Start the next man? |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson, MIN WR | Jordan Addison | If you must |
| DeVonta Smith, PHI WR | Dontayvion Wicks | If you must |
| Breece Hall, NYJ RB | Braelon Allen | If you must |
| Jadarian Price, SEA RB | Not listed; Emanuel Wilson leads | Wilson, if you must |
| Zach Charbonnet, SEA RB | Not listed; Emanuel Wilson leads | Wilson, if you must |
| Caleb Williams, CHI QB | Tyson Bagent | No |
| Baker Mayfield, TB QB | Jalon Daniels | No |
| Dallas Goedert, PHI TE | Zach Ertz | No |
| Adonai Mitchell, NYJ WR | Isaiah Williams | No |
| Caleb Douglas, MIA WR | Chris Bell | No |
| Colbie Young, CIN WR | Dohnte Meyers | No |
| Charlie Kolar, LAC TE | Oronde Gadsden II | No |
| Terrance Ferguson, LA TE | Not listed | No |
| Mason Taylor, NYJ TE | None | No |
| Marquise Brown, PHI WR | None | No |
| Brenen Thompson, LAC WR | None | No |
| Xavier Legette, CAR WR | Not listed | No |
| Ko Kieft, TB TE | Not listed | No |
Questionable
| Player | Next on the depth chart | Start the next man? |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans, SF WR | Deebo Samuel | No |
| Jalen Coker, CAR WR | Brycen Tremayne | No |
| Ladd McConkey, LAC WR | Quentin Johnston | No |
| Zay Flowers, BAL WR | Rashod Bateman | No |
| Kenyon Sadiq, NYJ TE | Mason Taylor, also Out | No |
| Colby Parkinson, LA TE | Davis Allen | No |
| Tyjae Spears, TEN RB | Nicholas Singleton | No |
| Chris Moore, BAL WR | None | No |
| Ray Davis, BUF RB | None | No |
| Trey Lance, LAC QB | None | No |
| Aidan O'Connell, LV QB | Not listed | No |
| Eli Raridon, NE TE | None | No |
| Noah Fant, NO TE | None | No |
These games have already kicked off, so these players are locked: Jayden Daniels, Rachaad White, Rico Dowdle and Tylan Wallace (Out), plus Terry McLaurin, Keenan Allen and Ashton Dulin (Questionable).
Start-Sit
Today's top five implied team totals (DraftKings via ESPN):
| Team | Opponent | Kickoff (ET) | Implied total |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | vs NE | 1:00 PM | 28.2 |
| DET | at CAR | 8:20 PM | 27.5 |
| CIN | vs JAX | 1:00 PM | 27.0 |
| BAL | vs TEN | 1:00 PM | 27.0 |
| KC | at LV | 4:25 PM | 26.0 |
In parentheses: the opponent's PPR points allowed to that position, then its rank (1 is softest). Otherwise it's the team's implied total.
Quarterback
- Start with confidence: Josh Allen (28.2 implied), Bryce Young (DET 30.8, 1st), Dak Prescott (HOU 21.3, 6th).
- Start if you must: Jalen Hurts without Smith or Goedert (LA 14.9, 23rd).
- Sit: Drake Maye (21.2 implied), Justin Herbert (SEA 12.3, 29th).
Running back
- Start with confidence: Jahmyr Gibbs (CAR 30.5, 3rd), Aaron Jones (MIA 32.9, 1st), Bucky Irving even with Jalon Daniels throwing (GB 30.7, 2nd).
- Start if you must: Braelon Allen in Hall's spot (CHI 20.3, 17th), Emanuel Wilson (24.8 implied), Javonte Williams (HOU 11.8, 32nd).
- Sit: Omarion Hampton (SEA 16.2, 28th), any Miami back (MIN 13.4, 30th).
Wide receiver
- Start with confidence: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (LAC 32.9, 15th), CeeDee Lamb (HOU 39.6, 2nd), Davante Adams (PHI 36.0, 9th).
- Start if you must: Jalen Coker if he's active (DET 39.0, 3rd); it's the night game, so you can wait. Also Jordan Addison (MIA 24.2, 28th), Dontayvion Wicks (LA 29.4, 20th), and Mike Evans if he's active (DEN 27.4, 26th).
- Sit: Ladd McConkey (SEA 23.8, 29th), Rome Odunze with Tyson Bagent throwing (NYJ 28.2, 22nd).
Tight end
- Start with confidence: Trey McBride (23.5 implied), Travis Kelce (LV 21.7, 2nd), Isaiah Likely (ARI 17.6, 6th).
- Start if you must: Darren Waller (DET 33.4, 1st), Dalton Kincaid (NE 6.2, 32nd).
- Sit: Mark Andrews (TEN 7.4, 30th), any Rams tight end (PHI 6.6, 31st).
Plain English
- Implied team total: How many points the betting market expects a team to score, worked out from the spread and the total. Bigger number, more touchdowns to go around.
- PPR points allowed: Fantasy points (one point per catch) a defense has given up to a position each game. High number, soft matchup.
Sources
DraftKings via ESPN (implied totals); nflverse play-by-play and snap counts (usage and matchup data); the league's official injury reports and depth charts via nflverse.