The Flex

The Snap

The biggest usage shift of Week 5 hit Justin Jefferson, who drew a 22% target share over weeks 1-4. Target share: The percentage of the team's pass attempts thrown at this player. Volume is the most stable thing in fantasy, and this is volume. Over the last three weeks that share is 15%. Jefferson's targets fell from 6.0 a game to 4.0, red zone touches from 1.3 to 0.5, and PPR scoring from 14.3 to 6.8. Red zone touches: Carries and targets inside the opponent's 20. This is where the touchdowns live.

The volume did not vanish. It moved. Jordan Addison climbed from an 18% share to 21%, and from 8.3 PPR points a game to 11.1. T.J. Hockenson ticked up from 21% to 22%. Aaron Jones went from 12% to 15%, and Jones' carries rose from 18.0 a game to 20.0 on a 65% carry share. Carry share: The percentage of the team's running back carries this player got.

One caveat: Jefferson has only three games in the pack, so the sample is thin. The drop is still real.

Here is what it means for Sunday. Minnesota visits New Orleans, and the Saints give up 34.2 PPR points a game to running backs, the most in the league. PPR points allowed: Fantasy points (one point per catch) a defense has given up to a position each game. High number, soft matchup. Start Jones as a confident RB2. Jefferson stays in my lineup, but as a WR2, not a WR1. What would make me wrong: another week near 15%.

Usage Report

"Season" in these tables means weeks 1-4. "Last 3" is the most recent three weeks. Snap % is the weeks 1-4 snap share. Snap share: The percentage of the offense's plays this player was on the field for. You cannot score from the bench.

Usage up

• Michael Wilson is Arizona's alpha: 12.3 targets a game lately, a 44% air yards share and a 0.73 WOPR. Air yards share: The share of the team's intended throwing distance that went to this player. It shows who gets the deep, high-value looks. WOPR: Weighted Opportunity Rating: target share and air yards share blended into one number. Above 0.6 is elite usage, 0.4 to 0.6 is a weekly starter's diet. Detroit gives up 43.5 PPR points a game to receivers, second-most in the league. Start Wilson everywhere.
• Terry McLaurin is at 9.0 targets a game lately, up from 7.3, and 13.4 PPR, up from 10.0. Start McLaurin against the Giants.
• Carnell Tate pairs a 48% air yards share with a 0.72 WOPR, which is elite usage on a bad offense. Tennessee's implied team total at DraftKings is 16.2, the lowest on the slate. Implied team total: How many points the betting market expects a team to score, worked out from the spread and the total. Bigger number, more touchdowns to go around. Houston gives up a league-high 44.4 PPR points a game to receivers. Start Tate as a WR3.
• Aaron Jones: see The Snap.
• Emanuel Wilson jumped from 13.2 carries a game to 17.0 and from 3.2 red zone touches to 4.3, with 6 goal line carries in weeks 1-4. Goal line carries: Carries from inside the 5. The most valuable touch in fantasy. The 36% snap share says someone else plays the passing downs. Wilson is still the top add.

Usage down

• Justin Jefferson: see The Snap.
• Ladd McConkey has 3.3 targets a game, zero red zone touches and 5.7 PPR lately. Tre Harris plays more, with a 77% snap share to McConkey's 54%. Denver allows 28.3 PPR points a game to receivers, 25th-softest in the league. Bench McConkey.
• David Montgomery slid from 11.8 carries to 9.0 and from 10.6 PPR to 4.5, while Woody Marks' red zone touches rose from 1.5 to 2.0. Flex at best.
• Saquon Barkley went off the board in August at an average draft position (ADP) of 13.9. Barkley now has a 36% carry share and 7.0 carries a game lately, while Tank Bigsby averaged 9.0. Philadelphia's implied total at Jacksonville on Sunday morning is 17.8. Sit Barkley until the carries are back in double digits.

Buy Low, Sell High

Buy low

1. Isaiah Likely, TE, NYG. A 29% target share and 9.0 targets a game lately, but Likely's PPR fell from 13.2 to 8.4 as red zone touches slid from 1.5 to 0.7. Washington allows 18.3 PPR points a game to tight ends, fifth-most. Trade framing: offer a WR4. You are buying TE1 volume at a TE2 price.

2. KC Concepcion, WR, CLE. A 23% share and 7.7 targets a game, but only 7.5 PPR. Trade framing: ask for Concepcion as the second piece in any deal with that manager.

3. Colston Loveland, TE, CHI. Share up from 13% to 15%, red zone touches up to 1.7 and an 86% snap share, but still only 6.7 PPR. Trade framing: costs a throw-in today, could be a starter later.

Sell high

1. Brian Robinson Jr., RB, ATL. 15.1 PPR a game lately, up from 12.1, on 11.7 carries and a 4% target share, behind a Bijan Robinson who gets 21.3 carries. Trade framing: sell to a manager desperate at RB for a receiver with a real target share.

2. Rachaad White, RB, WAS. 12.7 PPR lately, up from 10.0, on 7.5 carries and a 23% carry share. The depth chart lists Jacory Croskey-Merritt first. Trade framing: this is a scoring streak, not a role. Cash it.

3. Davante Adams, WR, LA. PPR up from 18.2 to 22.5 while the target share stayed flat at 23%. The 41% air yards share is real, so you are selling a WR1 at peak price, not dumping a fraud. Trade framing: start Adams Monday night against Buffalo, which allows 41.0 PPR points a game to receivers (third-most), then shop for a WR1 plus a starter.

Waiver Wire

ADP is only a rough guide to who is rostered. The pack's ADP comes from August drafts, and a blank ADP means either a true free agent or a name the feed missed, so check your league before you bid. FAAB (your free-agent auction budget) is shown as a share of the full season's money.

Wilson is the only name here with a lead-back role and goal line work, and San Francisco allows 25.1 PPR points a game to backs, eighth-softest. Johnson faces a Minnesota defense that allows just 7.7 to tight ends, so treat him as a stash this week and a start later. T.J. Hockenson shows no ADP but is almost certainly rostered. If Hockenson is out there, the 22% share lately makes a 15% bid worth it. Mike Gesicki also shows no ADP and is scoring 14.8 PPR a game, but Gesicki's share fell from 12% to 9%. Pass.

Injury Report

The official injury report in this week's pack lists no skill-position players.

• Out: none listed.
• Doubtful: none listed.
• Questionable: none listed.

Use the quiet week to lock in handcuffs. Next man up on the official depth chart: Sione Vaki behind Jahmyr Gibbs, Brian Robinson Jr. behind Bijan Robinson, Justice Hill behind Derrick Henry, Blake Corum behind Kyren Williams, and Seth McGowan behind Jonathan Taylor.

One oddity on the chart, and there is no injury behind it: Miami lists De'Von Achane third, behind Ollie Gordon II and Jaylen Wright, even though Achane's 44% carry share in weeks 1-4 beat Gordon's 37%. Go with the carries over the chart for now.

The Setup

Next week's top implied totals, from DraftKings via ESPN:

Arizona at Detroit is the game to target. Detroit allows 28.4 PPR points a game to tight ends and 43.5 to receivers, the softest and second-softest marks in the league, so Trey McBride and Michael Wilson are locks. Dallas is a 9.5-point favorite on Thursday night, so set CeeDee Lamb and Javonte Williams early. Fade the bottom of the board: Tennessee at 16.2, Miami and Philadelphia at 17.8.

Carolina and Kansas City are on bye. That takes out Kenneth Walker III (27.5 PPR a game), Bryce Young (22.8), Patrick Mahomes (21.0), Chuba Hubbard (19.8), Tetairoa McMillan (18.6) and Travis Kelce (13.2). Fill those spots now:

• RB: Emanuel Wilson.
• TE: Jake Ferguson for Thursday, or Juwan Johnson.
• QB: Jared Goff, if available: 23.3 PPR a game lately, the week's top implied total, and an Arizona defense that allows 21.0 PPR points a game to quarterbacks.
• WR: Keon Coleman or Isaac TeSlaa, both in games with a 54.5 over/under.

Plain English

• Target share: The percentage of the team's pass attempts thrown at this player. Volume is the most stable thing in fantasy, and this is volume.
• Red zone touches: Carries and targets inside the opponent's 20. This is where the touchdowns live.
• Carry share: The percentage of the team's running back carries this player got.
• PPR points allowed: Fantasy points (one point per catch) a defense has given up to a position each game. High number, soft matchup.
• Snap share: The percentage of the offense's plays this player was on the field for. You cannot score from the bench.
• Air yards share: The share of the team's intended throwing distance that went to this player. It shows who gets the deep, high-value looks.
• WOPR: Weighted Opportunity Rating: target share and air yards share blended into one number. Above 0.6 is elite usage, 0.4 to 0.6 is a weekly starter's diet.
• Goal line carries: Carries from inside the 5. The most valuable touch in fantasy.
• Implied team total: How many points the betting market expects a team to score, worked out from the spread and the total. Bigger number, more touchdowns to go around.

Sources

Usage from nflverse play-by-play and snap counts. Lines and implied totals from DraftKings via ESPN. Depth charts and injury reports from the league's official feeds via nflverse. ADP from August standard-scoring drafts.