The Flex

The Snap

Straight talk first. The stat pack for this issue came through with the player block empty. No target shares, no snap counts, no red zone touches, no last-3 splits. The injury report is empty too, and DraftKings via ESPN has no lines or implied totals posted yet. What did arrive, and what is solid, is the team-level picture from nflverse play-by-play through Week 3: pass rates, plays per game, offensive efficiency, and what every defense has been giving up to each position. That is enough to say something real about where the volume lives. It is not enough to tell you who got 9 targets on Sunday. I would rather tell you that than make it up.

So the usage story of the week is the team kind, and it is pace. New Orleans is running 75.0 plays a game and throwing on 65% of them. Houston is at 74.5 plays and a 66% pass rate. Pass rate is the share of plays the offense throws instead of runs. It tells you which teams feed receivers and which feed backs. Put those two numbers together and you get the two biggest passing pies in the league right now.

The catch is efficiency. EPA per play, Expected Points Added, is how many points a play moved the team toward scoring compared with an average play from the same spot. Positive is good on offense, negative is good on defense. New Orleans sits at 0.046, basically break-even. Houston is at -0.092, which means all that volume is coming from an offense that keeps falling behind schedule and throwing to catch up. For fantasy, that is fine. Chris Olave and Devaughn Vele in New Orleans, and Nico Collins in Houston, are the names on the depth chart eating those attempts. Volume that comes from losing is still volume in PPR.

Kansas City (71.0 plays, 0.2 EPA per play) and Chicago (69.5 plays, 0.144) are the versions you actually want: fast and good. Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, Rome Odunze, and Colston Loveland are the starters those numbers point at.

Usage Report

Normally this section shows target share, air yards share, WOPR, carry share, red zone touches, and snap share for eight to ten players against their season baseline. Target share is the percentage of the team's pass attempts thrown at this player. Volume is the most stable thing in fantasy, and this is volume. Air yards share is the share of the team's intended throwing distance that went to this player. WOPR, Weighted Opportunity Rating, blends the two, with above 0.6 elite and 0.4 to 0.6 a weekly starter's diet. Carry share is the percentage of the team's running back carries a player got. Red zone touches are carries and targets inside the opponent's 20, where the touchdowns live. Snap share is the percentage of the offense's plays a player was on the field for. You cannot score from the bench.

None of those player numbers are in this week's pack. What I can show is the team environment each starter sits in, which is the ceiling on all of the above. Players are pulled straight from the depth charts.

Usage up: pass-heavy, high-play offenses

Pittsburgh is the strangest line on that table. A 68% pass rate is the highest in the pack, and a -0.33 EPA per play is the second worst, ahead of only Atlanta at -0.403. Aaron Rodgers is throwing constantly and it is not working. Metcalf and Michael Pittman Jr. get the targets either way. Carolina is the cleaner version: 64% pass rate with a positive 0.162 EPA, so McMillan's targets come from an offense that is actually moving.

Usage down: run-heavy or slow offenses

Minnesota and Seattle are the two lowest pass rates in the pack at 46%. That does not make Jefferson or Smith-Njigba bad. It means every target they get is a bigger slice of a smaller pie, and a slow week in that offense has no floor under it. Atlanta is the one to worry about: run-leaning and the worst offense in the pack by EPA. London is stuck in it. San Francisco at 0.298 EPA is the opposite problem, a great offense that just does not throw much, so Evans and George Kittle are efficiency plays, not volume plays.

Buy Low, Sell High

With no per-player production numbers in the pack, this is framed on environment: who is sitting on volume the box score may not show yet, and whose points are probably leaning on efficiency that does not hold.

Buy low

• DK Metcalf, PIT. A 68% pass rate is a firehose. The offense is broken at -0.33 EPA per play, which is exactly why his manager may be soured. Offer a mid-tier RB2 and bet on the attempts.
• Jayden Reed, GB. Green Bay throws 67% of the time and the offense is a mess at -0.195. That combination usually means garbage-time targets, and garbage time pays in PPR. Ask for him as a throw-in.
• Devaughn Vele, NO. Second receiver on the depth chart behind Olave in a 75.0 plays-per-game offense. If he is on a bench in your league, he should not be. Offer a spare tight end.

Sell high

• Mike Evans, SF. The offense is elite at 0.298 EPA but only throws on half its plays at 50%. Touchdown-driven weeks from a low-volume role are the classic sell. Move him for a receiver on a pass-heavy team.
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA. Seattle's 46% pass rate is tied for the lowest in the pack. Great player, thin diet. If a manager values him as a WR1, take the WR1 price.
• Zay Flowers, BAL. Baltimore is efficient at 0.223 EPA and throws 51% of the time. That is a big-play offense, and big-play weeks are the ones you sell into.

What would make me wrong: the player feed comes back next week and shows Evans or Smith-Njigba at a 30% target share anyway. Volume is volume. This is a guess about ceilings, not a read of the actual targets.

Waiver Wire

ADP here is from August drafts and is only a rough proxy for who is rostered. Most of these names have no ADP at all, which means either nobody drafted them or the feed missed them. Check your own league before bidding. The pack's waiver list is almost all tight ends this week, so that is where the bids go.

1. MarShawn Lloyd, RB, GB. 12% FAAB. He is listed first on the Packers' depth chart with Chris Brooks and Kaleb Johnson behind him. Green Bay's 67% pass rate is bad news for a runner, but a starting back with no ADP is worth a real bid on the role alone.

2. Dalton Schultz, TE, HOU. 6% FAAB. Starting tight end in the highest-volume passing offense in the pack: 66% pass rate on 74.5 plays a game. No ADP. If he is out there, he is the best pure-volume bet on the list.

3. Jake Ferguson, TE, DAL. 5% FAAB. ADP of 165.9, last round of 10-team drafts, often free in 12-teamers. Dallas throws at 63% and scores well at 0.224 EPA per play.

4. Juwan Johnson, TE, NO. 4% FAAB. Same story as Schultz, smaller name. Starting tight end on a 75.0-play, 65%-pass offense.

5. Mason Taylor, TE, NYJ. 3% FAAB. Starter on the depth chart. The Jets are middling on pass rate at 52% but run 65.5 plays a game, which keeps the floor up.

6. Brenton Strange, TE, JAX. 2% FAAB. ADP 165.1. Jacksonville throws only 51% of the time but is efficient at 0.142 EPA. A streamer, not a fix.

7. Colby Parkinson, TE, LA. 1% FAAB. Listed ahead of Tyler Higbee on the depth chart. That alone is worth a dollar to see if it holds.

Skip: Gunnar Helm and Oronde Gadsden. Tennessee and the Chargers are both negative-EPA offenses, and the Chargers at -0.253 are the third worst in the pack.

Injury Report

The official injury report in the pack has no skill-position entries this week. I am not going to guess at who is banged up. What I can give you is the next-man-up from the depth charts for a few backfields where a single injury flips a roster:

• Kansas City: Kenneth Walker III starts, Emmett Johnson is second.
• Denver: J.K. Dobbins starts, RJ Harvey is second.
• New Orleans: Travis Etienne Jr. is listed first, Alvin Kamara second. That order matters in a 75.0-play offense.
• Green Bay: MarShawn Lloyd, then Chris Brooks.
• Miami: De'Von Achane, then Jaylen Wright, with Malik Willis the listed starting quarterback.
• Carolina: Chuba Hubbard, then Jonathon Brooks.

If any of those first names show up on Wednesday's report, the second name is the add.

The Setup

No next-week lines or implied totals are in the pack, so I cannot rank implied team totals yet. Implied team total is how many points the betting market expects a team to score, worked out from the spread and the total. Bigger number, more touchdowns to go around. When DraftKings posts, that is the first thing to check.

What the pack does have is what each defense allows. PPR points allowed is fantasy points, one per catch, a defense has given up to a position each game. High number, soft matchup. The matchups to hunt:

Detroit is giving up the most to receivers, tight ends, and quarterbacks in the pack. Whoever throws at the Lions next is a start. Miami and Carolina are where you play any running back with a pulse. Washington is a tight end matchup but a running back graveyard at 10.2 allowed, dead last.

The other side: New England has allowed 6.5 points a game, Seattle 8.5, San Francisco 9.5. Those are the fades. The pack lists no teams on bye, so there are no holes to fill this week. Fill the tight end spot from the waiver list above instead.

Plain English

• Pass rate: The share of plays the offense throws instead of runs. It tells you which teams feed receivers and which feed backs.
• EPA per play: Expected Points Added: how many points a play moved the team toward scoring compared with an average play from the same spot. Positive is good on offense, negative is good on defense.
• Target share: The percentage of the team's pass attempts thrown at this player. Volume is the most stable thing in fantasy, and this is volume.
• Air yards share: The share of the team's intended throwing distance that went to this player. It shows who gets the deep, high-value looks.
• WOPR: Weighted Opportunity Rating: target share and air yards share blended into one number. Above 0.6 is elite usage, 0.4 to 0.6 is a weekly starter's diet.
• Carry share: The percentage of the team's running back carries this player got.
• Red zone touches: Carries and targets inside the opponent's 20. This is where the touchdowns live.
• Snap share: The percentage of the offense's plays this player was on the field for. You cannot score from the bench.
• Implied team total: How many points the betting market expects a team to score, worked out from the spread and the total. Bigger number, more touchdowns to go around.
• PPR points allowed: Fantasy points (one point per catch) a defense has given up to a position each game. High number, soft matchup.

Sources

Team usage, efficiency, and points allowed from nflverse play-by-play and snap counts through Week 3 of 2026. Depth charts and injury reports from the league's official feeds via nflverse. Lines and implied totals from DraftKings via ESPN, none posted at press time. ADP from August standard-scoring drafts.