The Flex

The Snap

If you're choosing between Arizona receivers, start Michael Wilson, not Marvin Harrison Jr. Wilson gets 11.0 targets a game and a 28% target share: the percentage of the team's pass attempts thrown at this player. Volume is the most stable thing in fantasy, and this is volume. He adds a 44% air yards share, the share of the team's intended throwing distance that went to this player. It shows who gets the deep, high-value looks. His WOPR is 0.73. WOPR is the Weighted Opportunity Rating: target share and air yards share blended into one number. Above 0.6 is elite usage, 0.4 to 0.6 is a weekly starter's diet. Harrison has an 8% target share and 4.9 PPR points a game. August drafters took Harrison at an ADP (average draft position) of 63.8 and Wilson at 87.0. They took the wrong guy.

Arizona hosts Detroit in the week's co-highest total, 54.5 at DraftKings. The total is the over/under on combined points from both teams. Detroit allows 43.5 PPR points a game to receivers, second most in the league. PPR points allowed means fantasy points (one point per catch) a defense has given up to a position each game. High number, soft matchup. Detroit is also the softest draw of all for tight ends (28.4) and quarterbacks (28.6). Its pass defense ranks 29th of 32 in EPA per play (Expected Points Added: how many points a play moved the team toward scoring compared with an average play from the same spot. Positive is good on offense, negative is good on defense).

So Wilson is a WR2 with WR1 upside, Trey McBride (29% target share) is the top tight end play of the week, and Jacoby Brissett is a real streaming option. The thing that would make me wrong is Brissett himself: he has 4 interceptions in four games.

The Setup

All lines are from DraftKings via ESPN. The spread is the head start the underdog gets. Seahawks -3 means Seattle has to win by more than 3 for that bet to cash. The implied team total is how many points the betting market expects a team to score, worked out from the spread and the total. Bigger number, more touchdowns to go around. Matchup ranks run 1 to 32. For PPR points allowed, 1 is the softest matchup. For EPA, 1 is the best defense.

Detroit's 30.0 is the week's top implied team total, and it comes against an Arizona pass defense that ranks 31st in EPA. Start every Lion you roster.

Buffalo at the Rams is the last game of the week. Buffalo allows 41.0 PPR points to receivers (3rd) and 27.4 to backs (6th), so Davante Adams and Kyren Williams are must-starts.

Tampa Bay at Dallas is the first game of the week, so set those lineup spots early. Dallas is implied for 28.0. Tampa Bay is down to 19.5, with Baker Mayfield ruled Out.

Games to fade: Houston at Tennessee has a 37.5 total, and Tennessee's 15.0 is the week's lowest implied total. Cleveland at the Jets sits at 39.5. Philadelphia (17.2), Miami (18.0) and the Chargers (19.0) have the other low team totals. On bye: Carolina and Kansas City.

Usage Report

The pack doesn't flag any player as changing teams during the weeks 1-4 baseline, so every number below was earned with his current team.

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA: 34% target share, 50% air yards share and a 0.86 WOPR, the best in the pack. San Francisco allows only 27.4 PPR points to receivers (26th). At this volume the matchup doesn't matter.
• Carnell Tate, TEN: 0.72 WOPR, a 48% air yards share, and a 29% target share over the last three weeks. Tennessee's 15.0 implied total is the week's lowest. But Houston allows 44.4 PPR points to receivers, the most in the league. Volume plus the softest matchup beats a bad team total.
• RJ Harvey, DEN: a running back with a 19% target share and 7.0 targets a game. His carry share, the percentage of the team's running back carries this player got, is only 19%. J.K. Dobbins is first on the depth chart and gets 53% of the carries, but averages only 5.2 PPR points a game. In PPR, Harvey is the Denver back to own.
• Javonte Williams, DAL, and Derrick Henry, BAL: 11 goal line carries each. Goal line carries are carries from inside the 5. The most valuable touch in fantasy. Williams scores 20.4 PPR points a game on 57.8 rushing yards because he gets 5.5 red zone touches a game. Red zone touches are carries and targets inside the opponent's 20. This is where the touchdowns live. Henry adds a 73% carry share. The box score makes Williams look like a yardage disappointment. The usage says he's a touchdown machine on an offense implied for 28.0.
• Saquon Barkley, PHI: drafted at an ADP of 13.9, he's scoring 5.8 PPR points a game. It isn't bad luck: he has a 36% carry share, 9.0 carries and 1.2 red zone touches a game, on an offense implied for 17.2.

Start-Sit

QB

• Start: Jared Goff (Arizona allows 21.0 to QBs, 6th; Detroit implied 30.0).
• Start: Jacoby Brissett as a streamer (Detroit allows 28.6, 1st).
• Sit: Justin Herbert (6 interceptions; Chargers implied 19.0).
• Sit: Drake Maye (7 interceptions; Las Vegas is 5th in pass defense EPA).

RB

• Start: Aaron Jones Sr. (New Orleans allows 34.2, 1st).
• Start: Chase Brown (72% carry share; Miami allows 29.6, 2nd).
• Start: Jaylen Warren (Indianapolis is 29th in run defense EPA).
• Sit: Saquon Barkley (Philadelphia implied 17.2).
• Sit: De'Von Achane (third on Miami's depth chart; Miami implied 18.0).

WR

• Start: Michael Wilson (Detroit allows 43.5, 2nd).
• Start: Carnell Tate (Houston allows 44.4, 1st).
• Start: DeVonta Smith (0.76 WOPR; Jacksonville allows 37.5, 8th).
• Sit: Marvin Harrison Jr. (8% target share; Detroit's 43.5 goes to Wilson).
• Sit: Ladd McConkey (Denver allows 28.3, 25th; Chargers implied 19.0).

TE

• Start: Trey McBride (Detroit allows 28.4, 1st).
• Start: Isaiah Likely (Washington allows 18.3, 5th).
• Sit: Dalton Kincaid (the Rams allow 6.6, 31st).
• Sit: Juwan Johnson (Minnesota allows 7.7, 29th, and ranks 1st in pass defense EPA).

Flex coin flips

• Garrett Wilson over George Pickens. Tiebreaker: Wilson has a 25% target share to Pickens's 18%. Cleveland allows 37.8 to receivers (6th); Tampa Bay allows 24.1 (29th).
• Omarion Hampton over Bucky Irving. Tiebreaker: Denver ranks 32nd in run defense EPA, and Irving's quarterback is Out.
• Mike Gesicki over Tyler Higbee. Tiebreaker: Miami allows 18.6 to tight ends (3rd), Buffalo allows 11.2 (17th).

Waiver Wire

ADP comes from August drafts, so it's only a rough guide to who's rostered. A player with no ADP is usually available, but check your league. FAAB is your season's free agent bidding budget.

1. Emanuel Wilson, SEA (RB1 on the depth chart). 48% carry share and 6 goal line carries. Over the last three weeks he has averaged 17.0 carries and 4.3 red zone touches a game. Seattle is implied for 24.0. FAAB: 15%.

2. Mike Gesicki, CIN (TE1). 14.8 PPR points a game. Cincinnati is implied for 24.5, and Miami allows 18.6 to tight ends (3rd). Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins didn't practice. FAAB: 8%.

3. Devaughn Vele, NO (WR2). 7.8 targets a game, a 16% target share and 13.9 PPR points a game. Chris Olave sat out practice to rest. FAAB: 6%.

4. Jake Ferguson, DAL (TE1). A last-round pick in August at an ADP of 165.9. Dallas is implied for 28.0, and Tampa Bay allows 17.9 to tight ends (8th). FAAB: 4%.

5. Roman Wilson, PIT (WR3). 26% air yards share and 13.1 PPR points a game over the last three weeks. Pittsburgh is implied for 23.5. FAAB: 3%.

Injury Report

These are the official reports via nflverse. Only two skill players have a game status so far. Everything else is practice participation until the final report comes out.

Out

• Baker Mayfield, TB QB (thumb): Jalon Daniels is next on the depth chart. Downgrade Emeka Egbuka and Bucky Irving.

Doubtful

• None listed.

Questionable

• Jonathan Mingo, DAL WR (illness): he isn't among Dallas's top four receivers on the depth chart. No move needed.

Did not practice

• Lamar Jackson, BAL QB (ankle): Tyler Huntley is next.
• Caleb Williams, CHI QB (hamstring): Tyson Bagent is next.
• D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai, CHI RBs: Roschon Johnson is third on the depth chart.
• Ja'Marr Chase (concussion) and Tee Higgins (groin), CIN WRs: Colbie Young and Dohnte Meyers are next. Gesicki and Chase Brown gain.
• Breece Hall, NYJ RB: Braelon Allen is next.
• Alvin Kamara, NO RB: Kendre Miller is next.
• Malik Nabers, NYG WR: Malachi Fields is next. Likely gains too.
• Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs, WAS WRs: Antonio Williams and Treylon Burks are next.
• Tony Pollard, TEN RB: Tyjae Spears is next.
• Jordan Addison, MIN WR: Jauan Jennings is next.
• Chris Olave, NO WR: resting, not injured.

Limited

• Zay Flowers, Justin Jefferson, Isaiah Likely, Michael Pittman, and Rhamondre Stevenson (TreVeyon Henderson is his backup).
• Jonathan Taylor, Keenan Allen, Nico Collins and Aaron Jones Sr. were limited for rest, not injury.

Buy Low, Sell High

• Buy Isaiah Likely: 9.0 targets a game and a 29% target share over the last three weeks, but only 8.4 PPR points a game to show for it. That kind of volume pays off.
• Buy Ashton Jeanty: he's down to 13.7 PPR points a game over the last three weeks, from a season average of 18.5. He still gets 5.0 red zone touches and 6.3 targets a game. New England ranks 28th in run defense EPA.
• Sell Brian Robinson Jr.: 15.1 PPR points a game over the last three weeks, but he has a 33% carry share behind Bijan Robinson and 1 goal line carry all season.
• Sell Tyler Higbee: 16.0 PPR points a game over the last three weeks, but the depth chart lists Colby Parkinson ahead of him.

Plain English

• Target share: The percentage of the team's pass attempts thrown at this player. Volume is the most stable thing in fantasy, and this is volume.
• Air yards share: The share of the team's intended throwing distance that went to this player. It shows who gets the deep, high-value looks.
• WOPR: Weighted Opportunity Rating: target share and air yards share blended into one number. Above 0.6 is elite usage, 0.4 to 0.6 is a weekly starter's diet.
• Total: The over/under on combined points from both teams.
• PPR points allowed: Fantasy points (one point per catch) a defense has given up to a position each game. High number, soft matchup.
• EPA per play: Expected Points Added: how many points a play moved the team toward scoring compared with an average play from the same spot. Positive is good on offense, negative is good on defense.
• Spread: The head start the underdog gets. Seahawks -3 means Seattle has to win by more than 3 for that bet to cash.
• Implied team total: How many points the betting market expects a team to score, worked out from the spread and the total. Bigger number, more touchdowns to go around.
• Carry share: The percentage of the team's running back carries this player got.
• Goal line carries: Carries from inside the 5. The most valuable touch in fantasy.
• Red zone touches: Carries and targets inside the opponent's 20. This is where the touchdowns live.

Sources

Usage: nflverse play-by-play and snap counts. Lines and implied totals: DraftKings via ESPN. Depth charts and injury reports: the league's official feeds via nflverse. ADP: August standard-scoring drafts.